The summer-like weather is continuing for Sydneysiders for the best part of the weekend but before you dive straight into the ocean to cool off, be prepared for some icy ocean temperatures! Saturday will bring another great beach day with 27 degrees for the coast and a balmy 31 degrees in the west. There’s a slight chance of afternoon storms in the west but beaches should remain dry. But while it’s simmering outside, the ocean may feel like an ice bucket as sea surface temperatures take a dive over the next few days! You’ll need a wetsuit to swim at Bateman’s Bay on the NSW South Coast where the ocean temperature has already dropped from 19 degrees to a chilly 14.9 degrees this week! And the cooling is starting to show in Sydney’s waters which are sitting at 19.4 degress right now and falling. Note that Sydney’s ocean temperature is taken offshore so it’s probably even colder than that.
Why is the ocean so chilly? The cold ocean temperatures are a result of “upwelling.” Basically we’re seeing a consistent stream on north-easterly winds along the Sydney and South Coast which actually work to drag the surface water away from the coast. When this water gets dragged away something has to replace it, so the colder bottom ocean waters rise to the top resulting in a rapid cooling of sea surface temperatures on our coastline. Next week we’ll get southerly winds coming in which should allow sea surface temperatures to warm up again.
Sunday will start off well in Sydney with a high of 25-27 degrees before widespread rain and possible storms develop in the afternoon. Try and make the most of the sunny skies until then as once the rain rolls in on Sunday it will persist right through into next week.
Friday, November 26, 2010
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Another spring soaking heading straight for eastern Australia this weekend
The year 2010 has been nothing short of extraordinary when it comes to rainfall, with rain records smashed across much of northern and eastern Australia. The August to October period this year has been our wettest on record (from 111 years of record keeping) across the entire country- and there is another big soaking on the way this weekend. This will be the fourth, widespread, soaking deluge across eastern Australia this spring.
Thanks to a moderate to strong La Nina which is well established in the Pacific Ocean, we have very warm waters off the northern Australian coastline- this is the moisture source for all the rain that we’ve been seeing through northern and eastern Australia in recent months. This week northerly winds across the east have been funnelling very warm and humid conditions across the region so the moisture source for widespread heavy rain is back- all that’s needed now is a trigger! Tomorrow, this trigger comes in the form of a cold front. So the warm and moist tropical airmass from the north will clash with this colder airmass coming up from the south, resulting in an extensive area of rain that will move slowly eastwards. Far eastern SA, western QLD, central and northern VIC and much of NSW could see 50mm of rainfall from this system. Isolated falls of 100mm are also possible which could renew flood warnings across many already saturated catchments.
Of the capital cities, it’s Adelaide and Melbourne that will bear the brunt of this rain event over the weekend. Adelaide will experience a big temperature drop on Friday going from around 30 degrees in the morning to 20 degrees in the afternoon, accompanied by rain. The weather rollercoaster is also heading to Melbourne with the temperature dropping from 32 degrees on Friday to 23 degrees on Saturday. Rain and storms will develop during Friday afternoon and evening with the heaviest day of rain on Saturday. Melbourne could pick up around 50mm from this system.
Thanks to a moderate to strong La Nina which is well established in the Pacific Ocean, we have very warm waters off the northern Australian coastline- this is the moisture source for all the rain that we’ve been seeing through northern and eastern Australia in recent months. This week northerly winds across the east have been funnelling very warm and humid conditions across the region so the moisture source for widespread heavy rain is back- all that’s needed now is a trigger! Tomorrow, this trigger comes in the form of a cold front. So the warm and moist tropical airmass from the north will clash with this colder airmass coming up from the south, resulting in an extensive area of rain that will move slowly eastwards. Far eastern SA, western QLD, central and northern VIC and much of NSW could see 50mm of rainfall from this system. Isolated falls of 100mm are also possible which could renew flood warnings across many already saturated catchments.
Of the capital cities, it’s Adelaide and Melbourne that will bear the brunt of this rain event over the weekend. Adelaide will experience a big temperature drop on Friday going from around 30 degrees in the morning to 20 degrees in the afternoon, accompanied by rain. The weather rollercoaster is also heading to Melbourne with the temperature dropping from 32 degrees on Friday to 23 degrees on Saturday. Rain and storms will develop during Friday afternoon and evening with the heaviest day of rain on Saturday. Melbourne could pick up around 50mm from this system.
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
Severe storms to hit Sydney and NSW again!
Sydneysiders, along with most of NSW and the ACT, got a taste of summer yesterday as warm and humid blue skies turned to severe storms in the afternoon. The three ingredients that constitute a severe thunderstorm accompanied the massive and prolonged lightning display: flash flooding, large hail and damaging winds. Sydney's southern and south-western suburbs were hardest hit with 65mm at Holsworthy, 47mm of that falling in just one hour. Other rain totals included 47mm at Cronulla and 29mm at Sydney Airport. Sydney Harbour was whipped by a 100kmh wind gust.
Most of NSW, except for the far west, should brace again for summer-like temperatures and storms this afternoon. While Sydney's storms shouldn't be as widespread or intense as yesterday, severe storms are still possible although more likely Sydney's western suburbs. Both Wednesday and Thursday are set to deliver another round of Spring heat and severe storms, but this time both Sydney's western and coastal subrubs may be affected (like yesterday).
The state will continue to heat up towards the weekend with Sydney's west set to peak at a hot and sticky 34 degrees on Sunday.
Most of NSW, except for the far west, should brace again for summer-like temperatures and storms this afternoon. While Sydney's storms shouldn't be as widespread or intense as yesterday, severe storms are still possible although more likely Sydney's western suburbs. Both Wednesday and Thursday are set to deliver another round of Spring heat and severe storms, but this time both Sydney's western and coastal subrubs may be affected (like yesterday).
The state will continue to heat up towards the weekend with Sydney's west set to peak at a hot and sticky 34 degrees on Sunday.
Monday, November 1, 2010
Another rainy race day? Here's your Melbourne Cup forecast
The last three major race days at Flemington have been a washout and the odds for the Melbourne Cup are favouring wet conditions- but don't worry it will nothing like the Derby Day deluge!
On Saturday, Flemington was awash with heavy rain and Melbourne city picked up 55mm, almost a month's worth of rain and it's heaviest day of rain in 5 years. Yesterday (October 21, 2010) Melbourne's storages reached 50% for the first time in 4 years. But according to Melbourne Water this is still low in historical terms considering that only 19 of the past 50 years have seen Melbourne's storages slip below 50%.
The morning of Melbourne Cup day should be mostly dry, with scattered showers developing around midday. But the totals will be much lighter than previous race days with around 1-5mm expected. It will also be cool with a maximum of 18 degrees.
On Saturday, Flemington was awash with heavy rain and Melbourne city picked up 55mm, almost a month's worth of rain and it's heaviest day of rain in 5 years. Yesterday (October 21, 2010) Melbourne's storages reached 50% for the first time in 4 years. But according to Melbourne Water this is still low in historical terms considering that only 19 of the past 50 years have seen Melbourne's storages slip below 50%.
The morning of Melbourne Cup day should be mostly dry, with scattered showers developing around midday. But the totals will be much lighter than previous race days with around 1-5mm expected. It will also be cool with a maximum of 18 degrees.
Thursday, October 28, 2010
How will this weekend's big wet affect the capital cities?
As I mentioned in my last blog, yet another rain event is set to soak the south-eastern states between Friday and Monday. But how is this going to affect the capital cities?? Let's start with Adelaide...
Adelaide: Ahead of this rain event, Adelaide is heating up today with a high of 31 degrees this afternoon- this is 9 degrees above average and will be the city's hottest day in 6 months. But this beach weather will be short-lived with cooling rain arriving tomorrow and heavy falls possible in the afternoon. The temperature is also dropping with highs of only 22 degrees tomorrow. It will be an even cooler weekend with showers lingering until Sunday. Overall, Adelaide could see at least 20mm of rainfall from this event.
Melbourne: The rain and chill will arrive a little later in Melbourne so expect sunny and warm weather today, with a very warm 28 degree day on Friday! The rain won't arrive in Melbourne until late Friday. As for Derby Day on Saturday, it will be much cooler with only 17 degrees and there will be patchy rain, but heavy falls may hold off until later in the afternoon. More than 30mm is possible for Melbourne out of this system.
Hobart: A beautiful sunny day awaits Hobart on Friday with highs of 23 degrees thanks to warm northerly winds. But rain is likely to develop in Hobart on Saturday afternoon with most of the rain soaking the city on Sunday.
Sydney: After some morning showers today, Sydneysiders will experience a cloudy, dry and cooler afternoon. But the heat and sunshine are returning tomorrow with temperatures in the mid-twenties, and Saturday will be warmer and humid with temperatures around 27-31 degrees. Since this rain event is slow-moving, Saturday is likely to stay dry for Sydney with rain not popping up until Sunday, although the timing for this is still a little uncertain.
Canberra: Following a warm, dry and sunny Friday, rain is likely to arrive in Canberra late Saturday and will continue into Sunday.
Brisbane: Luckily for Brisbane, it will be a lovely weekend with dry skies and highs of 27 degrees for both days. Showers may arrive in Brisbane as early as Monday but since this is still some way out, the timing as to when these showers will arrive is still uncertain.
Adelaide: Ahead of this rain event, Adelaide is heating up today with a high of 31 degrees this afternoon- this is 9 degrees above average and will be the city's hottest day in 6 months. But this beach weather will be short-lived with cooling rain arriving tomorrow and heavy falls possible in the afternoon. The temperature is also dropping with highs of only 22 degrees tomorrow. It will be an even cooler weekend with showers lingering until Sunday. Overall, Adelaide could see at least 20mm of rainfall from this event.
Melbourne: The rain and chill will arrive a little later in Melbourne so expect sunny and warm weather today, with a very warm 28 degree day on Friday! The rain won't arrive in Melbourne until late Friday. As for Derby Day on Saturday, it will be much cooler with only 17 degrees and there will be patchy rain, but heavy falls may hold off until later in the afternoon. More than 30mm is possible for Melbourne out of this system.
Hobart: A beautiful sunny day awaits Hobart on Friday with highs of 23 degrees thanks to warm northerly winds. But rain is likely to develop in Hobart on Saturday afternoon with most of the rain soaking the city on Sunday.
Sydney: After some morning showers today, Sydneysiders will experience a cloudy, dry and cooler afternoon. But the heat and sunshine are returning tomorrow with temperatures in the mid-twenties, and Saturday will be warmer and humid with temperatures around 27-31 degrees. Since this rain event is slow-moving, Saturday is likely to stay dry for Sydney with rain not popping up until Sunday, although the timing for this is still a little uncertain.
Canberra: Following a warm, dry and sunny Friday, rain is likely to arrive in Canberra late Saturday and will continue into Sunday.
Brisbane: Luckily for Brisbane, it will be a lovely weekend with dry skies and highs of 27 degrees for both days. Showers may arrive in Brisbane as early as Monday but since this is still some way out, the timing as to when these showers will arrive is still uncertain.
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
De Ja Vu- Another rain event for the southeast this week!
This October is likely to go down as one of the wettest on record for the nation, and there's more widespread rain for the southeast later this week!
From Friday through to Sunday, most of the southeast should see at least 10mm with more than 25mm likely for most of TAS, VIC, and agricultural SA. The rain will start in SA on Friday so this will be Adelaide's wettest day, before moving through the eastern states between Saturday and Monday. Melbourne's wettest day will be Saturday which also happens to be Derby Day so race-goers should be prepared for a soggy turf!
And this is just the beginning...the latest rainfall outlook from November- January indicates above average rainfall for most of the nation, especially northern, eastern and south-western Australia. But for south-western Australia we must remember that this doesn't necessarily equate to the relieving rainfall that the area so desperately needs. The summer period is actually the region's driest of the year with the summer-time monthly average rainfall for Perth only 12mm. So even double the average rainfall for Perth during this period wouldn't equate to relieving rain. And since the soil is so dry, it may not even make a difference to the catchments as any rain is likely to soak straight into the soil, rather than end up as run-off.
From Friday through to Sunday, most of the southeast should see at least 10mm with more than 25mm likely for most of TAS, VIC, and agricultural SA. The rain will start in SA on Friday so this will be Adelaide's wettest day, before moving through the eastern states between Saturday and Monday. Melbourne's wettest day will be Saturday which also happens to be Derby Day so race-goers should be prepared for a soggy turf!
And this is just the beginning...the latest rainfall outlook from November- January indicates above average rainfall for most of the nation, especially northern, eastern and south-western Australia. But for south-western Australia we must remember that this doesn't necessarily equate to the relieving rainfall that the area so desperately needs. The summer period is actually the region's driest of the year with the summer-time monthly average rainfall for Perth only 12mm. So even double the average rainfall for Perth during this period wouldn't equate to relieving rain. And since the soil is so dry, it may not even make a difference to the catchments as any rain is likely to soak straight into the soil, rather than end up as run-off.
Thursday, October 21, 2010
NSW out of drought!
For the first time in 9 years, the entire state of NSW has been declared drought-free.
At the height of the drought in early 2003, as much as 95.5% of the state. But there has been a huge turn-around in the weather, and consequently drought figures, even in just the last few months alone. As early as January this year 82% of the state was still in drought. This figure dropped to just 7% in April following heavy rains in February and March. Any remaining drought areas through winter were washed away by heavy rains in early September.
Not only has the drought been broken but dam storages are at their best in years. One of the most impressive increases has been in the Hume Dam which was near zero last year yet now it's almost full! The total volume across all NSW dams is now 62%, and increase of 29% from last year. Storages in the Murray Darling have also seen a big boost with the total volume across all dams now at 72.4%, up from 29.1% last year. Many dams in the Murray Darling Basin are even 100% full including the Beardmore, Burrendong, Burrinjuck and Lake Menindee.
And there is more rain to come!! The primary reason for all this rain is a moderate to strong La Nina in the Pacific Ocean. La Nina events typically produce above average rainfall across northern and eastern Australia- and this year hasn't disappointed! Under La Nina conditions, we get warmer than normal sea surface temperatures off our northern coastline which leads to more moisture, evaporation, cloud formation and rain! La Nina is expected to stick around until early 2011 so it's likely that above average rain will continue through Spring and Summer.
At the height of the drought in early 2003, as much as 95.5% of the state. But there has been a huge turn-around in the weather, and consequently drought figures, even in just the last few months alone. As early as January this year 82% of the state was still in drought. This figure dropped to just 7% in April following heavy rains in February and March. Any remaining drought areas through winter were washed away by heavy rains in early September.
Not only has the drought been broken but dam storages are at their best in years. One of the most impressive increases has been in the Hume Dam which was near zero last year yet now it's almost full! The total volume across all NSW dams is now 62%, and increase of 29% from last year. Storages in the Murray Darling have also seen a big boost with the total volume across all dams now at 72.4%, up from 29.1% last year. Many dams in the Murray Darling Basin are even 100% full including the Beardmore, Burrendong, Burrinjuck and Lake Menindee.
And there is more rain to come!! The primary reason for all this rain is a moderate to strong La Nina in the Pacific Ocean. La Nina events typically produce above average rainfall across northern and eastern Australia- and this year hasn't disappointed! Under La Nina conditions, we get warmer than normal sea surface temperatures off our northern coastline which leads to more moisture, evaporation, cloud formation and rain! La Nina is expected to stick around until early 2011 so it's likely that above average rain will continue through Spring and Summer.
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