Possible NT cyclone for Xmas Day

An intensifying tropical low just over 200km north of Darwin off the Top End coast is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone early on Christmas Day. If it forms, it will be named Grant. A Cyclone Watch is current for coastal areas from Dundee Beach to Nhulunbuy, including Darwin.

While models are uncertain about the intensity and movement of this system, heavy rain is predicted for the north coast of the NT due to its slow-moving nature and proximity to the coast. Over 400mm is possible over the next few days with flooding likely.

If this tropical low develops into a tropical cyclone, it will be the third in the Australian region so far this season. Earlier in the month, Cyclone Alenga (named by Mauritius) drifted into the Australian Region of Responsibility but dissipated well off the coast with no impact on the west coast. The second of the season was a very shortlived Cyclone Fina in the Coral Sea, several hundreds of kiometres off the QLD coast.While this system had no direct impact on the coast, it is going to have a major influence on coastal conditions in southern QLD over the Christmas weekend. Cyclonic swell will coincide with a King Tide to produce waves of 8-10 foot extending to parts of northern NSW aswell. This will be a very dangerous time for holiday-makers wanting to go swimming, surfing and rock fishing, and there is a threat of beach erosion and inundation of low-lying areas.

Severe weather is also expected for south-eastern Australia during the Christmas period with a major thunderstorm outbreak! A hot, humid airmass is combining with a deepening trough to trigger widespread thunderstorms in TAS, VIC, southern NSW and the ACT on Christmas Day (including Melbourne and Canberra), moving north through central and northern NSW (including Sydney) on Boxing Day. Damaging winds, flash flooding and large hail are all possible!