I've graduated from Atmospheric Science!

After two years of hard work, I've officially graduated from Atmospheric Science at Macquarie University!

Thanks so much to The Weather Channel team (especially the other Mets- Dick, Tom and Alex) and everyone else who supported me throughout the course!

Footy Final Forecast!

While Melbourne's current official forecast has the city heading for its warmest day in 4 months with 21 degrees, the temperature is really struggling to get there. The city is stuck under a band of thick cloud which is blocking the sun's radiation and stopping the temperature from rising. As a result, the current temperature just before lunchtime is a shivering 12.5 degrees! Once the cloud clears, sunny skies will ensure that the temperature rises rapidly. The reason for this cloud hanging around is what is known as an "inversion." Basically, temperature decreases with altitude but, on some occasions, temperature increases with height leading to this inversion that traps the cloud. Hopefully, the inversion will break up very soon bringing sunnier and warmer weather just in time for the Grand Final parade in Melbourne's CBD this afternoon!

Now for the AFL Grand Final weather... a weak cold front is crossing the southeast tomorrow bringing isolated showers across southern Victoria tomorrow afternoon. While the game should be mostly dry, there's a chance that we'll get a light and brief shower or two during the game so pack the poncho just in case!

Double climate whammy to bring more rain!

Record rainfall!
Rainfall across many parts of the country has been enormous this year, and there is more on the way. One example of the massive rainfall turn-around from 2009 to 2010 is Alice Springs, which picked up only 77mm in all of last year, but has already had over 500mm so far this year!

Double climate whammy!
One of the main reasons for this above average rainfall is the fact that we have two climate phenomena conducive to above average rainfall happening simultaneously, which is very rare. Off the east coast of Australia in the Pacific Ocean we have a well established La Nina, a climate pattern that occurs every 3-7 years and usually results in above average rainfall across northern and eastern Australia. Meanwhile, off the west coast of Australia in the Indian Ocean, the negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is strengthening. When the IOD is in a negative phase, we typically get above average rain across most of Australia. If both of these persist through Spring, it will be the first simultaneous La Nina and negative IOD event since 1975. During this time, the rainfall pattern across the country from June to November was almost identical to what we're experiencing at present with above average rainfall almost everywhere, except for the southwest corner of WA which is unaffected by these two climate phenomena. So it is very likely that we will continue to see above average rainfall across much of the country for the rest of the year.

More cyclones??
One of the signatures of both a negative IOD and La Nina is warmer than normal waters of Australia's northern coastline. This suggests that we may experience a more active tropical cyclone season this year. QLD typically gets 50% more cyclone impacts in a La Nina year compared to a normal year, with as many as double the amount of cyclone impacts in a La Nina year compared to an El Nino year.

QLD Deluge: Unseasonal and Unprecedented

September rain records have been smashed throughout QLD following heavy rains. To 9am yesterday morning, the Mackay Alert rain gauge had recorded 182mm, it's heaviest day and month of September rain on record. But what makes this deluge even more extraordinary is the fact that September is typically the driest month of the year for most of QLD including Mackay which averages about 15-20mm of rain for the month.

Since 9am yesterday, the heaviest rain shifted further south with the Wide Bay and Burnett district and Sunshine coast picking up falls between 50-100mm. The trough of low pressure responsible for the downpours has since moved offshore easing conditions, but it's expected to return to the mainland again this afternoon with moderate to heavy falls possible around Rockhampton and the Sunshine coast.

QLD is the only state getting any significant rain this week. A large blocking high is keeping the rest of the country mainly dry including WA's southwest, which is set to experience at least another week of dry and warm weather.