Thursday, December 31, 2009

An extreme end to the year!

Massive rain has been drenching QLD from coast to country in the last 24 hours. Towns like Hughenden, Georgetown and Blackall all received just over 100mm, while heavy rain and flash flooding pounded the coastal region around Townsville this morning. The town itself picked up 206mm- it’s heaviest December day of rain ever. Close by, Bushland Beach got a massive 301mm! New Years Eve celebrations planned for this evening are on standby, but thankfully rain is easing this afternoon before re- developing again tomorrow morning.

But while many farmers have benefited from the consistent heavy rain, there are many who have missed out so hopefully further widespread rain this week will deliver to these areas.

Meanwhile, it’s a hot end to 2009 for the southern states. South Australians are baking in temperatures as much as 16 degrees above the December average. Adelaide is heading for 41 degrees before a cool change brings some relief by late this afternoon.

Residents in Hobart are really going to feel the change between 2009 and 2010. Today’s maximum temperature is 35 degrees- a huge 15 degrees above the average- while tomorrow's daytime temperature will be 22 degrees.

Melbourne will be hot and humid today with a maximum of 38 degrees but rain and thunderstorms will put a dampener on New Years Eve celebrations from this afternoon. Some of these storms have the potential to be severe with damaging winds.

For Sydneysiders, New Years Eve is grey and drizzly with showers but it should be generally dry for the fireworks tonight. If you plan on watching the famous fireworks display at a park, you might need some plastic or tarps as the grass will be a little wet!

Wherever your weather, I hope you all have a safe and happy new year!

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Rain continues in NSW and QLD

Northeast NSW is on flood alert with further heavy rain expected this week. Dubbo has already picked up 169mm, its highest 4 day rain total in at least 11 years. But for parts of the Mid North Coast, this much rain has fallen in a day! Bellingen has been soaked by over 150mm in the last 24 hours. Further inland, Glenn Innes has received 44mm to 9am this morning while Gunnedah has had its best day of rain in a year with 45mm.

Today, up to 100mm of further rain is possible for places northeast of line from Walgett to Forster so flooding and river rises are likely.

Most of QLD will also see showers and thunderstorms except for the far southwest corner. Normanton in the Gulf picked up almost 50mm in just one hour this morning. Coastal area have also copped heavy rain with 80mm in Rockhampton and 30mm in Brisbane Airport. Showers will clear from southeast QLD tomorrow, with heavier falls tending towards central and western parts of the state.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

"Laurence" on track to deliver Christmas downpours

Severe tropical cyclone “Laurence” crossed the Pilbara coast at 80 Mile Beach yesterday afternoon and dumped a massive 246mm over Mandora- its second highest 24 hour rain total since records began in 1913. The record was set in 2000 when tropical cyclone “Steve” brought 281mm.

The category 3 system is continuing to track inland through WA’s Interior as predicted and is packing wind gusts of 185kmh near its centre. A cyclone warning is current for the Pilbara east of Marble Bar, adjacent Kimberley and northwest Interior including Telfer, Cotton Creek and Nullagine. Central parts of the Interior including Giles and Warburton are on Cyclone Watch.

“Laurence” will feed a massive amount of moisture across the central and eastern interior bringing an early Christmas present to those wishing for rain.

Monday, December 21, 2009

Massive Christmas rains across the country

The Christmas and Boxing Day forecasts have taken a very interesting turn and it’s all thanks to Tropical Cyclone “Laurence.” The system moved offshore over the weekend and could have gone two different ways: westward over the vast waters of the Indian Ocean where it would have had little impact on our weather, or back over land where it would have a major impact weather-wise as far as the south-eastern states. “Laurence” re-developed on Saturday over the warm waters of the Indian Ocean and decided to head back towards the coast for the second time- a move which may change some menus from seafood to turkey for Christmas Day! It's likely to make landfall some time this afternoon.

So how can a tropical cyclone near Broome affect weather all the way in Sydney which is over 5000km away?! Well, as “Laurence” moves inland it’s going to drag a mass of moisture over the central interior. A trough in the southeast will tap into this moisture, bringing widespread rain as far as south- eastern Australia. On Christmas Eve, rain and thunderstorms will start to develop over VIC and NSW. Luckily for Melbourne, most of it will clear during Christmas Day. And cricket-lovers don’t despair, Melbourne is looking great for the Boxing Day Test with a sunny and warm 27 degrees on the way.

For Sydneysiders at this stage, Christmas morning is looking relatively clear but Christmas afternoon and Boxing Day are becoming cooler with rain. A note to shopaholics- you might have to queue up extra early for the Boxing Day sales along with everyone else who is also ditching the beach for a bargain!

Friday, December 18, 2009

NSW cools, but what about the weekend?

It feels like a completley different season for most of NSW, with temperatures crashing from as much as 43 degrees in Nowra yesterday to a cool 22 degrees today. Sydney's western suburbs also baked in 40-plus heat in what was their hottest day in almost 4 years! A southerly buster brought some welcome relief early this morning and today much needed rain is also bringing parched gardens back to life from coast to country across the north-eastern half of the state, including Sydney.

Up north, locals in WA's Kimberley are still on alert with tropical cyclone "Laurence" expected to strengthen as it moves offshore over the weekend. It's likely to be a tropical low when it crosses Broome but the very warm waters of the Indian Ocean will feed the system with the fuel it needs to strengthen. Sea surface temperatures of at least 26.5 degrees are required for a tropical cylone to form and "Laurence" is predicted to cross WA waters that are at least 28 degrees.

A wild weekend is also in store for residents from southeast QLD to northeast NSW with severe storms expected both on Saturday and Sunday- flash flooding, damaging winds and large hail are all possible.

Thursday, December 17, 2009

TC "Laurence" makes landfall

Severe tropical cyclone “Laurence” rapidly intensified into a category 5 system yesterday- that’s the most dangerous level- but the system has since weakened into a category 3 tropical storm.

Our first cyclone of the season crossed the Kimberley coast yesterday southeast of Cockatoo Island and will continue to weaken as it moves inland. Winds close to the cyclone’s centre are gusting up to 165kmh.

A cyclone warning is in place for coastal areas between Kuri Bay and Beagle Bay including Derby and adjacent inland parts. Broome and Fitzroy Crossing are on Cyclone Watch.

The system is expected to move out sea tomorrow as a tropical low but cyclone paths are notoriously erratic and unpredictable so stay tuned to channel 603 for the latest updates.

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

A nation of Summer extremes

Scorching hot temperatures are searing through the southern states elevating bushfire danger, "Laurence" has intensified into a Cat 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone (TC) and severe storms are pounding northeast NSW and southeast QLD- it's all happening!

TC "Laurence" strengthened in to a severe Cat 3 storm today and continues to skirt WA's Kimberley coast moving in a south- westerly direction. Very destructive wind gusts to 185kmh are being experienced near the coast just south of Troughton Island and may extend as far as Mitchell Plateau later today.

The structure of a TC is actually pretty fascinating. The centre or "eye" is the calmest part of a TC, while the area surrounding the eye or "eyewall" is where you not only get the strongest winds but the deepest cumulonimbus storm clouds which actually produce the heaviest rain. It's really important to know this about a TC because a period of calm weather doesn't necessarily mean the TC has moved on. Rather, the TC eye could be passing straight overhead, with destructive weather just around the corner.

TC's don't often pass directly over a weather station to capture the wind change between the calm "eye" and destructive "eyewall" but this morning "Laurence" made an exception by hurling straight over WA's Troughton Island. I watched the observations closely this morning and it was amazing to see the winds gradually decrease from S with gusts of 187kmh at 8.00am, to E with gusts of 24kmh at 9.00am when the "eye" passed across, to then intensify back to destructive stage with ENE with 148kmh an hour after that. Amazing stuff.

It has also been steaming in Eucla today which got 45.4 degrees today- a massive 20 degrees above the December average! South Australians have also been sweating it out with Adelaide reaching 38 degrees today. But it's only going to get hotter tomorrow across the south eastern states. Melbourne and Adelaide are looking down the barrel of a 39 degree day and even Hobart is stepping up to the hot plate with an unseasonally hot forecast of 32 degrees- that's 12 degrees above the December average. A change late Wednesday/ Thursday will cool things down dramatically but ahead of it winds will strengthen. This has prompted fire weather warnings in SA, VIC, TAS and NSW for Wednesday.

Yesterday, severe storms lashed northeast NSW with hail and flash flooding. Kempsey picked up 95mm and widespread hail turned Glenn Innes into what looked like a Winter Wonderland. This afternoon severe storms are once again grumbling across the Northern Tablelands and QLD's southeast. Flash flooding, damaging winds and large hailstones are all possible. At The Weather Channel, we often to refer to this region as "thunderstorm alley" because of the frequency and intensity of summer storms in this region.

Monday, December 14, 2009

Tropical Cyclone "Laurence" drenches Darwin

Our first tropical cyclone of the season has been hurling heavy rain over the western Top End leading to flooding in Darwin. Over 300mm of rain cascaded across the city over the weekend with a whopping 294mm falling in just 48 hours. The city typically cops a Summer soaking but this rain has been more intense than usual- in fact the highest 2 day rain total in 11 years.

The category 1 tropical cyclone is moving in a westerly direction parallel to Western Australia’s Kimberley coast. Heavy rain is possible in the North Kimberley tonight and tomorrow which may lead to stream rises and flooding.

A Cyclone Warning continues for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Wyndham and coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Cape Leveque are on Cyclone Watch. Computer models are predicting that the cyclone will intensify into a category 2 system tomorrow.

Friday, December 11, 2009

Top End coast on cyclone watch

The first tropical low of the season is spinning off the Northern Territory coast around 305km northeast of Darwin. It’s moving parallel to the coast in a westerly direction at approximately 15km per hour.

Coastal areas from Croker Island to Cape Fourcroy are on cyclone watch, and while gales are not expected for coastal areas in the next 24 hours, they may develop later if the low intensifies into a category 1 tropical cyclone tomorrow. Heavy rain is already impacting the coast with Warruwi getting drenched by 85mm in one day. Rain is expected to pick up in Darwin tomorrow.

As I mentioned in my previous post, if this low becomes a tropical cyclone it will be named “Lawrence.”

The convention of naming of tropical cyclones has a very interesting history which actually started in Australia thanks to eccentric Queensland meteorologist, Clement Wragge. For a period, he named tropical cyclones after politicians because he believed that they’re both “national disasters”! Then he started naming them after women since he believed they’re both “unpredictable.” Thankfully, the Bureau evened things out in 1975 allocating both male and female names to tropical cyclones.

Thursday, December 10, 2009

Dry start to December for Cairns

Following above average rain in November, Summer has kicked off in Cairns with a dry spell. Only 9mm has been recorded so far for December, well off our monthly average of 180mm. Over the next few days, the odd shower will sprinkle the coast but it’s mainly expected during the morning so for the most part, Cairns days will be warm and dry.

Further north, we’re starting to see our first flow of monsoonal winds, and our first tropical low of the season is brewing off the Northern Territory coast! The thick cloud mass associated with the low is already making an impact on the mainland bringing the equal warmest night in 8 years to Darwin. Should this low intensify into a tropical cyclone the next cab off the ranks in terms of names is “Laurence.” We’ll keep you up to date on all the latest on 603!

Thursday, December 3, 2009

Perth preps for a weekend scorcher

Get your zinc and cozzies ready- beautiful beach weather is on the way!

The mercury is on the rise in the golden west with temperatures getting into the high thirties for the weekend. Today, the world’s second most isolated capital city (after Honolulu!) is heading for sunny and warm 29 degrees with the “Freemantle Doctor” (aka “coastal seabreeze” if you’re living on the east coast) arriving in the afternoon to cool things down. The Doc is arriving every afternoon during this warm spell but because he’s coming late on Saturday, this will allow the temperature to get as high as 37 degrees. This will be Perth’s hottest day since March.

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Chilly start to Summer for Sydney

Following its hottest November on record, Sydney woke up to its coldest morning in 2 months today. Heavy showers overnight provided the city with 10mm of rain- the heaviest in 5 weeks. In fact, Sydney has picked up more rain in just the first 2 days of Summer than all of November! It’s all thank to chilly southerly winds that have also rendered the coast a danger zone with 6ft plus waves pounding at the shoreline, but as winds ease today so will the wild surf.

Sunny skies are also making a return to the harbour city this afternoon with highs of 25-27 degrees in the city between today and Sunday, and temperatures between 31-34 degrees in the west.