As I mentioned in my last blog, yet another rain event is set to soak the south-eastern states between Friday and Monday. But how is this going to affect the capital cities?? Let's start with Adelaide...
Adelaide: Ahead of this rain event, Adelaide is heating up today with a high of 31 degrees this afternoon- this is 9 degrees above average and will be the city's hottest day in 6 months. But this beach weather will be short-lived with cooling rain arriving tomorrow and heavy falls possible in the afternoon. The temperature is also dropping with highs of only 22 degrees tomorrow. It will be an even cooler weekend with showers lingering until Sunday. Overall, Adelaide could see at least 20mm of rainfall from this event.
Melbourne: The rain and chill will arrive a little later in Melbourne so expect sunny and warm weather today, with a very warm 28 degree day on Friday! The rain won't arrive in Melbourne until late Friday. As for Derby Day on Saturday, it will be much cooler with only 17 degrees and there will be patchy rain, but heavy falls may hold off until later in the afternoon. More than 30mm is possible for Melbourne out of this system.
Hobart: A beautiful sunny day awaits Hobart on Friday with highs of 23 degrees thanks to warm northerly winds. But rain is likely to develop in Hobart on Saturday afternoon with most of the rain soaking the city on Sunday.
Sydney: After some morning showers today, Sydneysiders will experience a cloudy, dry and cooler afternoon. But the heat and sunshine are returning tomorrow with temperatures in the mid-twenties, and Saturday will be warmer and humid with temperatures around 27-31 degrees. Since this rain event is slow-moving, Saturday is likely to stay dry for Sydney with rain not popping up until Sunday, although the timing for this is still a little uncertain.
Canberra: Following a warm, dry and sunny Friday, rain is likely to arrive in Canberra late Saturday and will continue into Sunday.
Brisbane: Luckily for Brisbane, it will be a lovely weekend with dry skies and highs of 27 degrees for both days. Showers may arrive in Brisbane as early as Monday but since this is still some way out, the timing as to when these showers will arrive is still uncertain.
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
De Ja Vu- Another rain event for the southeast this week!
This October is likely to go down as one of the wettest on record for the nation, and there's more widespread rain for the southeast later this week!
From Friday through to Sunday, most of the southeast should see at least 10mm with more than 25mm likely for most of TAS, VIC, and agricultural SA. The rain will start in SA on Friday so this will be Adelaide's wettest day, before moving through the eastern states between Saturday and Monday. Melbourne's wettest day will be Saturday which also happens to be Derby Day so race-goers should be prepared for a soggy turf!
And this is just the beginning...the latest rainfall outlook from November- January indicates above average rainfall for most of the nation, especially northern, eastern and south-western Australia. But for south-western Australia we must remember that this doesn't necessarily equate to the relieving rainfall that the area so desperately needs. The summer period is actually the region's driest of the year with the summer-time monthly average rainfall for Perth only 12mm. So even double the average rainfall for Perth during this period wouldn't equate to relieving rain. And since the soil is so dry, it may not even make a difference to the catchments as any rain is likely to soak straight into the soil, rather than end up as run-off.
From Friday through to Sunday, most of the southeast should see at least 10mm with more than 25mm likely for most of TAS, VIC, and agricultural SA. The rain will start in SA on Friday so this will be Adelaide's wettest day, before moving through the eastern states between Saturday and Monday. Melbourne's wettest day will be Saturday which also happens to be Derby Day so race-goers should be prepared for a soggy turf!
And this is just the beginning...the latest rainfall outlook from November- January indicates above average rainfall for most of the nation, especially northern, eastern and south-western Australia. But for south-western Australia we must remember that this doesn't necessarily equate to the relieving rainfall that the area so desperately needs. The summer period is actually the region's driest of the year with the summer-time monthly average rainfall for Perth only 12mm. So even double the average rainfall for Perth during this period wouldn't equate to relieving rain. And since the soil is so dry, it may not even make a difference to the catchments as any rain is likely to soak straight into the soil, rather than end up as run-off.
Thursday, October 21, 2010
NSW out of drought!
For the first time in 9 years, the entire state of NSW has been declared drought-free.
At the height of the drought in early 2003, as much as 95.5% of the state. But there has been a huge turn-around in the weather, and consequently drought figures, even in just the last few months alone. As early as January this year 82% of the state was still in drought. This figure dropped to just 7% in April following heavy rains in February and March. Any remaining drought areas through winter were washed away by heavy rains in early September.
Not only has the drought been broken but dam storages are at their best in years. One of the most impressive increases has been in the Hume Dam which was near zero last year yet now it's almost full! The total volume across all NSW dams is now 62%, and increase of 29% from last year. Storages in the Murray Darling have also seen a big boost with the total volume across all dams now at 72.4%, up from 29.1% last year. Many dams in the Murray Darling Basin are even 100% full including the Beardmore, Burrendong, Burrinjuck and Lake Menindee.
And there is more rain to come!! The primary reason for all this rain is a moderate to strong La Nina in the Pacific Ocean. La Nina events typically produce above average rainfall across northern and eastern Australia- and this year hasn't disappointed! Under La Nina conditions, we get warmer than normal sea surface temperatures off our northern coastline which leads to more moisture, evaporation, cloud formation and rain! La Nina is expected to stick around until early 2011 so it's likely that above average rain will continue through Spring and Summer.
At the height of the drought in early 2003, as much as 95.5% of the state. But there has been a huge turn-around in the weather, and consequently drought figures, even in just the last few months alone. As early as January this year 82% of the state was still in drought. This figure dropped to just 7% in April following heavy rains in February and March. Any remaining drought areas through winter were washed away by heavy rains in early September.
Not only has the drought been broken but dam storages are at their best in years. One of the most impressive increases has been in the Hume Dam which was near zero last year yet now it's almost full! The total volume across all NSW dams is now 62%, and increase of 29% from last year. Storages in the Murray Darling have also seen a big boost with the total volume across all dams now at 72.4%, up from 29.1% last year. Many dams in the Murray Darling Basin are even 100% full including the Beardmore, Burrendong, Burrinjuck and Lake Menindee.
And there is more rain to come!! The primary reason for all this rain is a moderate to strong La Nina in the Pacific Ocean. La Nina events typically produce above average rainfall across northern and eastern Australia- and this year hasn't disappointed! Under La Nina conditions, we get warmer than normal sea surface temperatures off our northern coastline which leads to more moisture, evaporation, cloud formation and rain! La Nina is expected to stick around until early 2011 so it's likely that above average rain will continue through Spring and Summer.
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
More cyclones predicted for this season!
The 2010/11 tropical cyclone (TC) season is not only expected to be more active across northern Australia, but an earlier TC crossing in November is also likely.
The Bureau of Meteorology has released a statement outlining predictions for 20-22 TC's this season but it's important to note that this is the long term average in the Australian area of responsibility covering 90E to 160E, waters thousands of kilometres away from our mainland. But for actual waters that affect the Australian mainland (105E to 160E), the number should be closer to 15. This number is typical of La Nina years (more details on La Nina below) which usually result in above average TC activity. The long term average of TC's in the Australian area of responsibility is 12, while for Australian waters it is 10. Therefore, tropical cyclone activity in Australian waters this season is expected to be about 50% higher than the long term average. Of the TC's that are expected to develop in Australian waters this season, around half or just over half may cross the coast.
Not only this, the TC season is predicted to start a little earlier than usual, during November or early December.
The primary reason for increased TC activity is a well established La Nina in the Pacific Ocean. Under La Nina conditions, we get above average sea surface temperatures off the northern Australian coastline. This not only leads to above average rainfall and an increased risk of flooding in northern and eastern Australia (which we've already observed), but also favourable conditions for enhanced TC activity.
The Bureau of Meteorology has released a statement outlining predictions for 20-22 TC's this season but it's important to note that this is the long term average in the Australian area of responsibility covering 90E to 160E, waters thousands of kilometres away from our mainland. But for actual waters that affect the Australian mainland (105E to 160E), the number should be closer to 15. This number is typical of La Nina years (more details on La Nina below) which usually result in above average TC activity. The long term average of TC's in the Australian area of responsibility is 12, while for Australian waters it is 10. Therefore, tropical cyclone activity in Australian waters this season is expected to be about 50% higher than the long term average. Of the TC's that are expected to develop in Australian waters this season, around half or just over half may cross the coast.
Not only this, the TC season is predicted to start a little earlier than usual, during November or early December.
The primary reason for increased TC activity is a well established La Nina in the Pacific Ocean. Under La Nina conditions, we get above average sea surface temperatures off the northern Australian coastline. This not only leads to above average rainfall and an increased risk of flooding in northern and eastern Australia (which we've already observed), but also favourable conditions for enhanced TC activity.
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