Sydney- get ready to shiver in the water this weekend!

The summer-like weather is continuing for Sydneysiders for the best part of the weekend but before you dive straight into the ocean to cool off, be prepared for some icy ocean temperatures! Saturday will bring another great beach day with 27 degrees for the coast and a balmy 31 degrees in the west. There’s a slight chance of afternoon storms in the west but beaches should remain dry. But while it’s simmering outside, the ocean may feel like an ice bucket as sea surface temperatures take a dive over the next few days! You’ll need a wetsuit to swim at Bateman’s Bay on the NSW South Coast where the ocean temperature has already dropped from 19 degrees to a chilly 14.9 degrees this week! And the cooling is starting to show in Sydney’s waters which are sitting at 19.4 degress right now and falling. Note that Sydney’s ocean temperature is taken offshore so it’s probably even colder than that.

Why is the ocean so chilly? The cold ocean temperatures are a result of “upwelling.” Basically we’re seeing a consistent stream on north-easterly winds along the Sydney and South Coast which actually work to drag the surface water away from the coast. When this water gets dragged away something has to replace it, so the colder bottom ocean waters rise to the top resulting in a rapid cooling of sea surface temperatures on our coastline. Next week we’ll get southerly winds coming in which should allow sea surface temperatures to warm up again.

Sunday will start off well in Sydney with a high of 25-27 degrees before widespread rain and possible storms develop in the afternoon. Try and make the most of the sunny skies until then as once the rain rolls in on Sunday it will persist right through into next week.

Another spring soaking heading straight for eastern Australia this weekend

The year 2010 has been nothing short of extraordinary when it comes to rainfall, with rain records smashed across much of northern and eastern Australia. The August to October period this year has been our wettest on record (from 111 years of record keeping) across the entire country- and there is another big soaking on the way this weekend. This will be the fourth, widespread, soaking deluge across eastern Australia this spring.

Thanks to a moderate to strong La Nina which is well established in the Pacific Ocean, we have very warm waters off the northern Australian coastline- this is the moisture source for all the rain that we’ve been seeing through northern and eastern Australia in recent months. This week northerly winds across the east have been funnelling very warm and humid conditions across the region so the moisture source for widespread heavy rain is back- all that’s needed now is a trigger! Tomorrow, this trigger comes in the form of a cold front. So the warm and moist tropical airmass from the north will clash with this colder airmass coming up from the south, resulting in an extensive area of rain that will move slowly eastwards. Far eastern SA, western QLD, central and northern VIC and much of NSW could see 50mm of rainfall from this system. Isolated falls of 100mm are also possible which could renew flood warnings across many already saturated catchments.

Of the capital cities, it’s Adelaide and Melbourne that will bear the brunt of this rain event over the weekend. Adelaide will experience a big temperature drop on Friday going from around 30 degrees in the morning to 20 degrees in the afternoon, accompanied by rain. The weather rollercoaster is also heading to Melbourne with the temperature dropping from 32 degrees on Friday to 23 degrees on Saturday. Rain and storms will develop during Friday afternoon and evening with the heaviest day of rain on Saturday. Melbourne could pick up around 50mm from this system.

Severe storms to hit Sydney and NSW again!

Sydneysiders, along with most of NSW and the ACT, got a taste of summer yesterday as warm and humid blue skies turned to severe storms in the afternoon. The three ingredients that constitute a severe thunderstorm accompanied the massive and prolonged lightning display: flash flooding, large hail and damaging winds. Sydney's southern and south-western suburbs were hardest hit with 65mm at Holsworthy, 47mm of that falling in just one hour. Other rain totals included 47mm at Cronulla and 29mm at Sydney Airport. Sydney Harbour was whipped by a 100kmh wind gust.

Most of NSW, except for the far west, should brace again for summer-like temperatures and storms this afternoon. While Sydney's storms shouldn't be as widespread or intense as yesterday, severe storms are still possible although more likely Sydney's western suburbs. Both Wednesday and Thursday are set to deliver another round of Spring heat and severe storms, but this time both Sydney's western and coastal subrubs may be affected (like yesterday).

The state will continue to heat up towards the weekend with Sydney's west set to peak at a hot and sticky 34 degrees on Sunday.

Another rainy race day? Here's your Melbourne Cup forecast

The last three major race days at Flemington have been a washout and the odds for the Melbourne Cup are favouring wet conditions- but don't worry it will nothing like the Derby Day deluge!

On Saturday, Flemington was awash with heavy rain and Melbourne city picked up 55mm, almost a month's worth of rain and it's heaviest day of rain in 5 years. Yesterday (October 21, 2010) Melbourne's storages reached 50% for the first time in 4 years. But according to Melbourne Water this is still low in historical terms considering that only 19 of the past 50 years have seen Melbourne's storages slip below 50%.

The morning of Melbourne Cup day should be mostly dry, with scattered showers developing around midday. But the totals will be much lighter than previous race days with around 1-5mm expected. It will also be cool with a maximum of 18 degrees.

How will this weekend's big wet affect the capital cities?

As I mentioned in my last blog, yet another rain event is set to soak the south-eastern states between Friday and Monday. But how is this going to affect the capital cities?? Let's start with Adelaide...

Adelaide: Ahead of this rain event, Adelaide is heating up today with a high of 31 degrees this afternoon- this is 9 degrees above average and will be the city's hottest day in 6 months. But this beach weather will be short-lived with cooling rain arriving tomorrow and heavy falls possible in the afternoon. The temperature is also dropping with highs of only 22 degrees tomorrow. It will be an even cooler weekend with showers lingering until Sunday. Overall, Adelaide could see at least 20mm of rainfall from this event.

Melbourne: The rain and chill will arrive a little later in Melbourne so expect sunny and warm weather today, with a very warm 28 degree day on Friday! The rain won't arrive in Melbourne until late Friday. As for Derby Day on Saturday, it will be much cooler with only 17 degrees and there will be patchy rain, but heavy falls may hold off until later in the afternoon. More than 30mm is possible for Melbourne out of this system.

Hobart: A beautiful sunny day awaits Hobart on Friday with highs of 23 degrees thanks to warm northerly winds. But rain is likely to develop in Hobart on Saturday afternoon with most of the rain soaking the city on Sunday.

Sydney: After some morning showers today, Sydneysiders will experience a cloudy, dry and cooler afternoon. But the heat and sunshine are returning tomorrow with temperatures in the mid-twenties, and Saturday will be warmer and humid with temperatures around 27-31 degrees. Since this rain event is slow-moving, Saturday is likely to stay dry for Sydney with rain not popping up until Sunday, although the timing for this is still a little uncertain.

Canberra: Following a warm, dry and sunny Friday, rain is likely to arrive in Canberra late Saturday and will continue into Sunday.

Brisbane: Luckily for Brisbane, it will be a lovely weekend with dry skies and highs of 27 degrees for both days. Showers may arrive in Brisbane as early as Monday but since this is still some way out, the timing as to when these showers will arrive is still uncertain.

De Ja Vu- Another rain event for the southeast this week!

This October is likely to go down as one of the wettest on record for the nation, and there's more widespread rain for the southeast later this week!

From Friday through to Sunday, most of the southeast should see at least 10mm with more than 25mm likely for most of TAS, VIC, and agricultural SA. The rain will start in SA on Friday so this will be Adelaide's wettest day, before moving through the eastern states between Saturday and Monday. Melbourne's wettest day will be Saturday which also happens to be Derby Day so race-goers should be prepared for a soggy turf!

And this is just the beginning...the latest rainfall outlook from November- January indicates above average rainfall for most of the nation, especially northern, eastern and south-western Australia. But for south-western Australia we must remember that this doesn't necessarily equate to the relieving rainfall that the area so desperately needs. The summer period is actually the region's driest of the year with the summer-time monthly average rainfall for Perth only 12mm. So even double the average rainfall for Perth during this period wouldn't equate to relieving rain. And since the soil is so dry, it may not even make a difference to the catchments as any rain is likely to soak straight into the soil, rather than end up as run-off.

NSW out of drought!

For the first time in 9 years, the entire state of NSW has been declared drought-free.

At the height of the drought in early 2003, as much as 95.5% of the state. But there has been a huge turn-around in the weather, and consequently drought figures, even in just the last few months alone. As early as January this year 82% of the state was still in drought. This figure dropped to just 7% in April following heavy rains in February and March. Any remaining drought areas through winter were washed away by heavy rains in early September.

Not only has the drought been broken but dam storages are at their best in years. One of the most impressive increases has been in the Hume Dam which was near zero last year yet now it's almost full! The total volume across all NSW dams is now 62%, and increase of 29% from last year. Storages in the Murray Darling have also seen a big boost with the total volume across all dams now at 72.4%, up from 29.1% last year. Many dams in the Murray Darling Basin are even 100% full including the Beardmore, Burrendong, Burrinjuck and Lake Menindee.

And there is more rain to come!! The primary reason for all this rain is a moderate to strong La Nina in the Pacific Ocean. La Nina events typically produce above average rainfall across northern and eastern Australia- and this year hasn't disappointed! Under La Nina conditions, we get warmer than normal sea surface temperatures off our northern coastline which leads to more moisture, evaporation, cloud formation and rain! La Nina is expected to stick around until early 2011 so it's likely that above average rain will continue through Spring and Summer.

More cyclones predicted for this season!

The 2010/11 tropical cyclone (TC) season is not only expected to be more active across northern Australia, but an earlier TC crossing in November is also likely.

The Bureau of Meteorology has released a statement outlining predictions for 20-22 TC's this season but it's important to note that this is the long term average in the Australian area of responsibility covering 90E to 160E, waters thousands of kilometres away from our mainland. But for actual waters that affect the Australian mainland (105E to 160E), the number should be closer to 15. This number is typical of La Nina years (more details on La Nina below) which usually result in above average TC activity. The long term average of TC's in the Australian area of responsibility is 12, while for Australian waters it is 10. Therefore, tropical cyclone activity in Australian waters this season is expected to be about 50% higher than the long term average. Of the TC's that are expected to develop in Australian waters this season, around half or just over half may cross the coast.

Not only this, the TC season is predicted to start a little earlier than usual, during November or early December.

The primary reason for increased TC activity is a well established La Nina in the Pacific Ocean. Under La Nina conditions, we get above average sea surface temperatures off the northern Australian coastline. This not only leads to above average rainfall and an increased risk of flooding in northern and eastern Australia (which we've already observed), but also favourable conditions for enhanced TC activity.

I've graduated from Atmospheric Science!

After two years of hard work, I've officially graduated from Atmospheric Science at Macquarie University!

Thanks so much to The Weather Channel team (especially the other Mets- Dick, Tom and Alex) and everyone else who supported me throughout the course!

Footy Final Forecast!

While Melbourne's current official forecast has the city heading for its warmest day in 4 months with 21 degrees, the temperature is really struggling to get there. The city is stuck under a band of thick cloud which is blocking the sun's radiation and stopping the temperature from rising. As a result, the current temperature just before lunchtime is a shivering 12.5 degrees! Once the cloud clears, sunny skies will ensure that the temperature rises rapidly. The reason for this cloud hanging around is what is known as an "inversion." Basically, temperature decreases with altitude but, on some occasions, temperature increases with height leading to this inversion that traps the cloud. Hopefully, the inversion will break up very soon bringing sunnier and warmer weather just in time for the Grand Final parade in Melbourne's CBD this afternoon!

Now for the AFL Grand Final weather... a weak cold front is crossing the southeast tomorrow bringing isolated showers across southern Victoria tomorrow afternoon. While the game should be mostly dry, there's a chance that we'll get a light and brief shower or two during the game so pack the poncho just in case!

Double climate whammy to bring more rain!

Record rainfall!
Rainfall across many parts of the country has been enormous this year, and there is more on the way. One example of the massive rainfall turn-around from 2009 to 2010 is Alice Springs, which picked up only 77mm in all of last year, but has already had over 500mm so far this year!

Double climate whammy!
One of the main reasons for this above average rainfall is the fact that we have two climate phenomena conducive to above average rainfall happening simultaneously, which is very rare. Off the east coast of Australia in the Pacific Ocean we have a well established La Nina, a climate pattern that occurs every 3-7 years and usually results in above average rainfall across northern and eastern Australia. Meanwhile, off the west coast of Australia in the Indian Ocean, the negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is strengthening. When the IOD is in a negative phase, we typically get above average rain across most of Australia. If both of these persist through Spring, it will be the first simultaneous La Nina and negative IOD event since 1975. During this time, the rainfall pattern across the country from June to November was almost identical to what we're experiencing at present with above average rainfall almost everywhere, except for the southwest corner of WA which is unaffected by these two climate phenomena. So it is very likely that we will continue to see above average rainfall across much of the country for the rest of the year.

More cyclones??
One of the signatures of both a negative IOD and La Nina is warmer than normal waters of Australia's northern coastline. This suggests that we may experience a more active tropical cyclone season this year. QLD typically gets 50% more cyclone impacts in a La Nina year compared to a normal year, with as many as double the amount of cyclone impacts in a La Nina year compared to an El Nino year.

QLD Deluge: Unseasonal and Unprecedented

September rain records have been smashed throughout QLD following heavy rains. To 9am yesterday morning, the Mackay Alert rain gauge had recorded 182mm, it's heaviest day and month of September rain on record. But what makes this deluge even more extraordinary is the fact that September is typically the driest month of the year for most of QLD including Mackay which averages about 15-20mm of rain for the month.

Since 9am yesterday, the heaviest rain shifted further south with the Wide Bay and Burnett district and Sunshine coast picking up falls between 50-100mm. The trough of low pressure responsible for the downpours has since moved offshore easing conditions, but it's expected to return to the mainland again this afternoon with moderate to heavy falls possible around Rockhampton and the Sunshine coast.

QLD is the only state getting any significant rain this week. A large blocking high is keeping the rest of the country mainly dry including WA's southwest, which is set to experience at least another week of dry and warm weather.

Northerlies hammer southeast but deliver Spring to QLD!

QLDers are experiencing a taste of Spring as warmer west to north-westerly winds drive up the mercury to as much as 7 degrees above average in Longreach to 33 degrees. It's Brisbane's turn tomorrow with a forecast maximum of 28 degrees! But the winter warmth will be shortlived with temperatures returning to 22 degrees on Friday. Parts of NSW are also enjoying warmer winter temperatures with Bourke heading for 27 degrees today.

But it's the strength of these winds that will affect the southeastern states most. Severe weather warnings for damaging winds are current for alpine areas of the ACT, Southern Tablelands and Southwest Slopes of NSW above 1200m, while for Victoria it's the Wimmera, Western , Central, North Central and Alpine districts that may be affected. Gusts over 90kmh have already been recorded in Victoria's alpine region- such winds are strong enough to bring down trees and powerlines. The wild winds will be accompanied by another 15cm of fresh snow for the valleys and as much as 50cm for the higher peaks of the ski resorts by the weekend.

Brisbane and Hobart soaked, Melbourne and Perth next!

From the moment I walked through The Weather Channel doors at 4am this morning, it hasn't stopped! Eastern QLD was completely drenched overnight, damaging winds and flooding rains are hitting NSW, VIC and TAS today, and much needed winter rains are on the way for Perth!

Let's start with QLD...widespread falls of 50-100mm have been recorded across the coast and adjacent inland with Brisbane picking up 78mm, it's heaviest rain for any day in 6 months and its heaviest August day of rain in at least 10 years. The rain has now moved offshore and, apart from a possible lingering shower or two today, Brisbane and QLD can look forward to dry skies for the rest of the week.

Meanwhile, a low in Bass Strait is driving flooding rains over western VIC and eastern TAS. Falls of 50-100mm are possible over the Otway ranges and eastern TAS, including Hobart. Rain and winds are expected to increase over Melbourne leading into tonight with localised flooding and damaging winds possible. Severe weather warnings and flood watches are in place across many rivers and districts in both states. This surge of rain is particularly interesting for eastern TAS which has experienced a very dry winter so far. Hobart has only picked up 22mm between June-August, when the average winter rain in Hobart is over 150mm!

Perth has also endured a dry winter with practically no rain recorded in August. Thankfully, this is changing today as a cold front approaches the west coast, bringing showers today and soaking rain overnight and into tomorrow. At least 30mm is possible for the city.

Damaging winds are in line for most of VIC, NSW and southern QLD between today and tomorrow. Winds with gusts over 90-100kmh are possible and severe weather warnings have also been issued for this wild weather over the next 24 hours.

Winter rains fail in Perth

Winter rains have failed so far in Perth with the city only picking up 194mm so far this season. Dry and sunny weather with Spring-like temperatures is expected to continue for another week, so it’s possible that this could end up being Perth’s driest Winter on record. The driest Winter on record for Perth in 2006 saw the city receive only 230mm of rain. Winter rains normally amount to 481mm so as you can see, Perth is struggling.

Meanwhile in the east, La Nina conditions are strengthening. We can’t officially call it a La Nina until we’ve experienced these conditions for a few months, but it’s almost certain that 2010 will be classified as a La Nina year. A La Nina event is typically characterised by above average rainfall across northern and eastern Australia.

Equal coldest day on record for Alice Springs

A soaking and shivering Alice Springs has just experienced its equal coldest day on record with the outback town recording a maximum of only 7 degrees this morning! This is a massive 13 degrees below the July maximum average temperature! Yesterday afternoon, the temperature only reached 6.3 degrees, and with winds of around 30kmh it would have felt more like 2 degrees- or the top of Thredbo! In just the first week of July, Alice Springs has already received almost 5 times the July monthly average rainfall with 68.4mm.

It has been an incredible year of weather so far. Average rainfall from January to July in Alice Springs is 174.7mm, yet the town has been soaked by a massive 470.2mm this year already! Minimum temperatures have also been extreme with a low of -2.7 degrees recorded in June.

Perth's longest cold spell in a century!

Perth is experiencing its 12th consecutive day of minimum temperatures below 5 degrees, making it its longest cold spell in at least 100 years! At 0.3 degrees, this morning's temperature fell just 1 degree short of the all-time record of -0.7 degrees. Perth's suburbs did drop to sub-zero lows with Jandakot shivering in -1.4 degrees this morning.

Chilly mornings and nights will continue over Tuesday and Wednesday, but a strong cold front on Thursday will bring a mass of cloud that will keep minimum temperatures to a more bearable 7-8 degrees from Thursday to Sunday. But this powerful front is also poised to deliver severe weather with damaging winds, thunderstorms and heavy rain to the southwest, including Perth.

Further north, unseasonal rain is drenching the Kimberley, Pilbara and northern Interior. This is supposed to be the dry season, but in the last 24 hours a northwest cloudband has delivered 51mm to Marble Bar (4 times its July monthly average), 54mm for Telfer and 36mm for Port Hedland (3 times its July monthly average). As this rain moves eastwards, it's also soaking Alice Springs, with inland QLD next in line.

Nation freezes in cold snap!

Setting foot outside this week has felt like walking into a freezer across most of the country. Records tumbled as as cities and towns across NSW including Bourke got down to as low as -4 degrees. Meanwhile Sydneysiders experienced their coldest June morning in 61 years! But with widespread cloud cover across the country today, it's now maximum temperatures that are sending shivers from Alice Springs to Sydney. Yesterday, Alice Springs only reached 9 degrees which is 10 degrees below the July maximum average and their coldest day for any month in 2 years! Today, day-time temperatures across cloud-covered QLD and NSW will be as much as 7 degrees below average with Charlesville heading for a chilly 13 degrees and Bourke going for a maximum of only 12 degrees. Melbourne is also icy cold as it heads for its 5th day in a row below 13 degrees- its longest cold spell in 14 years. Temperatures will remain bitterly cold into the weekend so rug up or head to Cairns or Darwin where its a much balmier 28-32 degrees!

Destructive winds blast Melbourne and the southeast!

Powerful winds are pummelling the south-eastern states as a vigorous cold front rapidly crosses the region. Severe weather warnings for damaging winds remain current for the Lower South East district of SA, most of Victoria, and southern NSW. The worst affected areas have been the ski resorts with a whopping 143kmh wind gust recorded at Mt Hotham at 1.30am this morning- its strongest in a year. SA's Cape Jaffa, TAS's Mount Read and NSW's Thredbo also recorded wind gusts over 100kmh.

A band of intense rain and thunderstorms also developed across Melbourne's suburbs this morning producing damaging wind gusts. At 10.24am, Melbourne Airport was pounded by a 93kmh gust and at 10.40am, St Kilda was shaken by a gust of 113kmh. These winds are strong enough to bring down trees and powerlines.

The heaviest rain has unfortunately been over the ski resorts. And yes, it has been rain since temperatures didn't get cold enough for snow! To 9am this morning, Mt Hotham picked up a slushy 55mm, while Thredbo got drenched with 71mm! It also bucketed down over northern Tasmania with 60-80mm falls prompting minor flood warnings for the North and South Esk river basins.

Wintry blast sends snow and shivers across the southeast!

A vigorous cold front pounded the southeast yesterday with damaging winds, snow, showers and icy cold temperatures. The highest recorded wind gust was a massive 137kmh at Wilsons Promontory and the maximum temperature in Orange, NSW, only got to 5 degrees! But while everyone was shivering, the ski resorts lapped up the winter chill with snowy blizzards delivering around 5-10cm of fresh powder. The picture above is from Mount Buller. Selwyn Snowfields picked up 17cm and with a 32 hour marathon of man-made snowmaking, the resort will likely open this weekend with 2 lifts.

In Tasmania, snow fell as low as 400m turning towns like Waratah into a winter wonderland. With cold air heading east out of Tasmania today, the snow is retreating up to 1200m by tonight but will be back down to 700m tomorrow. A Bushwalkers Alert is current for southern , western and central Tasmania.

Tornado lashes Lennox

An east coast low has been dumping heavy rain over the NSW coast with a supercell thunderstorm- the rarest and most intense type of storm- spawning a tornado that severely damaged 30 homes in Lennox Head yesterday morning. Supercell storms are not only rare in general, but they're even more rare in June which is two months after the official storm season. However yesterday's atmospheric conditions created the perfect set up for a supercell. We had warm humid air at the surface and very cold and dry air aloft- the contrast between the two air masses created a great amount of instability leading to the supercell formation. Supercells are characterised by a rotation in the cloud and when heavy rain bursts down to the surface, the downdraught can carry this rotation right down to the ground which materialises as a tornado. We normally get around 20 tornados in Australia every year but because they often occur in unpopulated areas they usually go unreported.

Apart from serious tornado damage, heavy rain is also drenching the NSW coast. As much as 171mm fell across Ballina in a 24 hour period to 9am yesterday morning, its heaviest rain in 6 years. The low has shifted further south today so rain has eased for the Northern Rivers, but increased across areas to the south of the low like the Mid North Coast and Hunter districts. To 9am this morning, Port Macquarie Golf Club picked up 83mm and Norah Head received 56mm. Heavy overnight rain also delivered over 50mm to Sydney's suburbs including North Rocks, West Pennant Hills and Hornsby. Heavy rain will continue between Port Macquarie and Wollongong today, easing back tomorrow as the low moves east. However, rain will intensify once again on Sunday.

Soaking rain hits the nation's food bowl.

The Murray Basin is soaking up widespread rain thanks to a cut-off low that has been spiralling from west to east, drawing in moisture from the tropics and moving slow enough to deliver some very healthy totals. This same low delivered heavy falls to southwest WA last Friday and Saturday. Over the last 24 hours heavy rain and storms have drenched SA's coast and country. To 9am this morning: Clare picked up 36mm- it's heaviest rain in 17 months, Snowtown received 38mm- it's heaviest rain in 4 years and Adelaide Airport got 31mm!

The rain-bearing low is moving east so rain is clearing from SA this afternoon but increasing in parts of QLD, NSW and Victoria today, and on the NSW coast south of the Hunter region tomorrow. Thanks to this system, parts of the Riverina district in NSW have received their first rain in months including Deniliquin with 30mm. Victorian towns have also received their best rain in months with 29mm in Mildura.

As the low moves across NSW today, severe storms with flash flooding are possible over the central and southern inland. Severe storms are also possible this afternoon from QLD's northwest to southeast with the chance of damaging winds and large hail.

As winds become strong onshore on the NSW coast south of the Hunter region tomorrow, it will bucket down from the south coast up to the Hunter including Sydney. Falls of 50mm+ are possible for coastal suburbs and showers may continue during the evening so don't forget the poncho if you're heading to the State of Origin.

Keep the brollies up Sydney- there’s more rain on the way!

Weekend showers drenched Sydney's coast and city bringing the rain total up to 105mm in the city since last Monday, and over 200mm for Cronulla. But unfortunately, none of this rain reached the Warragamba catchment area. While these showers have cleared, keep your brollies handy as it’s going to bucket down tomorrow and Wednesday.

A low is moving across NSW tomorrow bringing widespread rain across the state. Patchy light rain will develop this afternoon, becoming heavier as the low comes across tomorrow, and then pounds moist onshore winds onto the coast on Wednesday. The good news is that this time Warragamba will get at least 20mm, while areas south of Sydney could get over 50mm.

The big wet hits Brisbane, Sydney and Perth!

Brisbane is getting drenched today thanks to a surge of cold air pushing in across southeast QLD. Showers and thunderstorms could deliver locally heavy falls especially for coastal suburbs. But don't fret if you have weekend plans, as showers will clear by tomorrow morning. Not for Sydney and Perth though....

Showers will develop in Sydney this afternoon and evening, ramping up on Saturday with a surge of southerly winds so it will be chilly too. Expect the showers to be heavy at times, especially on the coast, but conditions will ease on Sunday.

You'll also need your brollies in Perth this afternoon as showers roll in and increase tomorrow. At least 20mm is expected for Perth with the chance of severe storms and strong winds. The good news is that a lot of this rain will also spread across the southern agricultural regions of Australia including Western Australia's Central Wheatbelt. But this surge of rain is likely to be accompanied by damaging winds for Western Australia's southwest and south coast.

Sydney gets soaked by heaviest rain in months!

Over the last 2 days, Sydney's suburbs have been getting drenched by heavy showers but if you've been looking at the synoptic chart to find answers on where it's coming from, you're probably still scratching your head. This is because the synoptic chart only shows the conditions at the surface. Synoptic charts from the last 2 days have shown onshore winds on the NSW coast but this isn't enough to cause the intense downpours that we've seen.

One of the main triggers of these heavy showers is actually located about 4-5km above the surface in the form of a "cold pool" aloft. As this "cold pool" moved over the very warm sea surface temperatures (24 degrees at the moment!), this large temperature difference caused the instability to trigger thunderstorms. The warm sea surface temperatures have also lead to higher evaporation, providing more available moisture for these showers.

As a result, buckets of showers have soaked Sydneysiders with coastal suburbs copping the heaviest falls. Cronulla received its highest 2 day rain in 7 years with 160mm, while Sydney city received 62mm over 48 hours. Falls have been significantly lighter away from the coast with Penrith only getting 1mm. Yesterday was also the coldest day of the year in Sydney with the city shivering in a maximum of only 15 degrees .

The slow-moving cold pool has now moved offshore so showers are easing, but a repeat of this current pattern is expected on Friday and Saturday. Like the last 2 days, it will be cold and unstable so a few thunderstorms and heavy showers are likely.

What desert? Outback gets more unseasonal rain!

It has been an amazing few months for the outback with widespread and consistent rain - and there's is more to come! I've been to the outback a couple of times this year already and the transformation from red dust to green is incredible. I took this photo from the air and you can see the huge contrast between the normally red earth that is being overtaken by vegetation.

Most of the rain this year has been the result of cyclones and lows but this weekend, a northwest cloudband sprawled across northern Australia and delivered soaking rain from Western Australia across to Queensland. Kalumburu in Western Australia's Kimberley received 79mm in 2 days while Lajamanu got saoked by 5 times its May average rain in just days with 41mm.

This cloudband is contracting towards the northeast tomorrow, but another northwest cloudband will spread across the tropics this week bringing further unseasonal rain. The Kimberley could get another 100mm.

Frosty filming in Bathurst

It was absolutely freezing as I did my live crosses from Bathurst NSW to the Weather Channel yesterday morning- the mercury dipped down to an icy -3.3 degrees making it the coldest morning of the year!! With clear skies, no winds and little moisture, we had perfect conditions for frost. My producer took this photo in between live reports from the Bathurst Harness Racing Club which was covered in icy frost. Fortunately, the Autumn beauty of the town helped me to forget that I couldn't feel my toes or fingers! The golden sun was rising over fog-filled valleys, the leaves were bright shades of red and burnt orange, and with frost across every surface, it looked like the town was dusted with a coat of icing sugar! But it's important to remember that frost can have a very detrimental impact on some agricultural communities in Australia, especially fruit growers.

The frosty starts are here to stay for the next couple of days so get the beanies and scarfs out, and rug up!

Frost-chasing in Bathurst!

Cold Antarctic air is sending shivers all the way from Tasmania to southern parts of QLD leading to a series of frosty mornings this week.

As a result, the Weather Channel on-ground crew and I making our way to frost-bitten Bathurst in NSW to report from the freezing cold conditions live on the channel tomorrow morning so make sure you tune in at 603!

If you're being affected by the frost or Autumn freeze, send me your weather photos to feedback@weatherchannel.com.au and you might see them on-air!

See you tomorrow!

Cold blast sends shivers through the southeast

The most significant cold front so far this year is blasting cold Antarctic air, showers and south-westerly winds across much of the southeast with temperatures are as much as 10 degrees colder than yesterday! Snowfall is expected to descend as low as 1000m for Victoria and 500m for Tasmania, a sure sign that Winter is not far away! Rhylla from Victoria's Mt Buller sent in this picture today, and if you have any weather photos make sure you upload them on our website http://www.weatherchannel.com.au/. Speaking of our new website, you can also see speckled cloud moving across the southeast on the satellite -this indicates very cold air. And if you want to know how long this cold spell will last, you can get a 10 day forecast for any postcode in the whole country!

While much of the southeast is shivering, the northern half of NSW is enjoying a beautiful sunny day thanks to warm north-westerly winds ahead of the change. Sydney is heading for 26 degrees today, a balmy 7 degrees above the long-term average. But get your woolies, uggies and scarfs ready as the cold front will hit Sydney tonight delivering cold weather for the rest of the week. Cold and dry south-westerlies are also moving into southern QLD dropping temperatures and bringing frost to the Granite Belt tomorrow.

A slow-moving high will edge towards the southeast tomorrow causing winds and showers to ease, but it will also lead to very cold nights and frosty mornings. By Thursday morning, severe frost will affect northeast Victoria and the NSW slopes and ranges. Even Sydney's western suburbs are a chance to get frost over the weekend with temperatures dipping down to 3 degrees.

Rumbles rock the country from sky and earth

What a wild 24 hours of weather!

Let's start off with 8.17am yesterday when a magnitude 5 earthquake shook WA's Goldfields, 10km southwest of Kargoolie. According to Geoscience Australia, we experience earthquakes of this magnitude in our country around once a year, but because they often occur in unpopulated regions they largely go unnoticed. That certainly wasn't the case in Kargoolie yesterday when food toppled off supermarkets shelves, and roofs turned to rubble in just ten terrifying seconds. The quake also forced the closure of Australia's larget gold mine, the Super Pit.

90% of all earthquakes occur on tectonic plate boundaries due to the movement of plates against eachother, so considering that Australia is situated smack bang in the middle of the Indo- Australia plate, this sort of earthquake comes as a shock. But fault lines within tectonic plates often cause such tremors, infact Geoscience Australia has measured around 20 small earthquakes in Australia in just the last month alone!

From rumbles in the earth to rumbles in the sky, severe storms barrelled across South Australia and Victoria yesterday bringing flash flooding thanks to large rain totals. Andamooka was hit by its second major storm in just two weeks with 38mm, while south-eastern suburbs in Melbourne such as Lyndhurst received 47mm. Today scattered showers and storms are possible in SA northeast of Coober Pedy to Port Augusta to Renmark, as well as central and eastern parts of Victoria. Some storms could be severe but are unlikely to be as volatile as yesterday.

Fire and Ice: Icelandic volcano closes European airports

The second Icelandic volcanic eruption in a month has catapulted tonnes off ash into the atmosphere. High altitude westerly winds have spread the ash plume as far as 1000km from the volcano itself closing major airports across Europe- and leaving thousands of travellers stranded.

The atmosphere is broken up into various levels depending on their temperature profiles. The troposphere is the first 10km of the atmosphere and this is where all our weather happens. The next level is the stratosphere, a stable layer with very little weather. The boundary between these two layers is known as the tropopause and large aircraft usually fly just above this boundary since the absence of "weather" provides calm conditions and little turbulence.

When a volcano erupts, it often spews up a huge amount of ash with such great force that tiny particles reach as far as the stratosphere. Even if the ash isn't visible, this poses a problem for aircraft as it can enter the engines and cause damage, electrical failures and faulty instrument readings. This is the primary reason why many airports across Europe have closed today.

Volcanic eruptions can also have a significant impact on the short-term climate. A large amount of ash in the atmosphere can effectively act as a barrier against solar radiation leading to a period of cooling. The most recent example of this is the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Phillipines- it's ash cloud dropped the average temperature by 0.4-0.5 degrees.

Autumn sets in across much of the country

If you've dusted off the uggies this week, then you're probably not alone with most of the country experiencing well below average temperatures and their coldest mornings in months this week. A strong cold front crossed the southeastern states over the weekend leaving cold Antarctic air in its wake- and shivering Aussies! This morning, Cooma Airport in NSW got down to a chilly -5.7 degrees while Canberra experienced a frosty start getting down to just below 1 degree. The cold, southerly air reached as far north as southern inland QLD with parts of the Darling Downs and Maranoa and Warrego districts waking up to single digits.

Southwest WA have also had an icy taste of Autumn but it has been the opposite of the crisp, clear skies across the southeastern states. A low pressure system spiralling off the southwest coast has been churning in cold air, heavy showers and damaging winds, keeping SES crews very busy overnight. A severe weather warning for locally damaging winds and abnormally high tides still stands for the Southwest and adjacent parts of the Lower West districts, including Mandurah, Bunbury and Busselton. From yesterday up until midday local time, Busselton had picked up almost 50mm of rain. Conditions will begin to ease this afternoon.

Record rain floods inland South Australia

The heaviest rain in a generation has left many towns across inland South Australia flooded. Roxby Downs averages 12mm of rain for the whole month of April, but this morning, 86mm pelted the town in a matter of hours, including 13mm in 10 minutes! This was its heaviest rain in 13 years. Other massive 24 hour rain totals to 9am this morning incude:

- Andamooka 85mm – heaviest in 21 years, April record (site started 1965)
- Leigh Creek 67mm to 9am and still pouring!
- Woomera 34mm - heaviest rain in 16 months
- Tarcoola 27mm - heaviest rain in 5 months

The deluge is gradually clearing from South Australia as the system moves east, with rain now falling over western NSW and Victoria.

Rain, storms and flash flooding are also affecting Alice Springs , sending the normally dry Todd river flowing once again. With heavier rain expected this weekend, be prepared for a "dead track" for the Alice Springs Cup.

Salt turns into inland sea!

I just got back from an amazing adventure through the Australian outback and was lucky enough to see the floodwaters feeding into Lake Eyre at the moment. The heavy rain in recent months that put southwest QLD underwater also left the Georgina and Diamantina rivers swelling and those waters have been flowing into the Warburton river. This river feeds into Lake Eyre and as you can see in the photos that I took from the air, the normally dry and salty lake has taken on a striking shade of blue! This rare pulse of water has enticed hundreds of pelicans and aquatic life to the region.

But there's more water on the way- and it's not just the floodwaters that are still continuing to flow into the salty lake. A northwest cloudband across central Australia right now is expected to deliver widespread falls of 25mm or more across SA's pastoral districts over the next 48 hours. So as well as capitalising on inflows from QLD's floods, Lake Eyre is set to receive around 25-50mm of its own rain. This will provide bird and aquatic life with even more incentive to trek all the way out to the driest part of our country, not to mention travellers eager to see outback come to life during this uncommon flooding and rain event.

Anna Creek Station, which is located to the western side of Lake Eyre, has also benefited from recent rains. The drought-stricken cattle station now boasts full dams and veins of thick green vegetation where rivers and and streams have been running. Half the size of Tasmania, Anna Creek Station is the largest cattle station in the world.

And it doesn't stop there- rain and storms across Alice Springs may lead to localised flooding, sending the Todd river flowing once again.

Perth's dry spell ends with a bang!!

As predicted in the post below, severe storms pounded Perth yesterday afternoon bringing heavy rain, golf-ball sized hail in the northern suburbs, and wind gusts as strong as 117kmh at Ocean Reef.

Perth Airport's 4 month long dry spell ended with a bang when 25mm of rain fell in just 10 minutes, with 41mm in total. Swanbourne had its heaviest rain in 5 years with 48mm. As the storms hammered through the temperature dropped from a hot 32 degrees to a chilly 18 degrees in just 2 hours!

Storms are once again possible today and they could be severe but not as brutal or widespread as yesterday.

Ului weakens but continues to drench QLD from coast to country

Ului crossed the QLD coast at Airlie Beach as a category 3 tropical cyclone early on Sunday morning but then weakened rapidly once it made landfall. Ex TC Ului is now tracking through northwest QLD and while winds have eased, it's still continuing to bring heavy rain and flooding to the Central Coast, Capricornia, Central Highlands and Central West districts. In the last 24 hours to 9am this morning, many already rain and wind ravaged towns between Mackay and Rockhampton have recorded over 100mm of rain.

The rain will gradually ease as Ului tracks fruther west and brings patchy rain to the Northern Territory. But many are asking: will this rain will affect flooded southwest and southern QLD? Luckily this rain will only spill into northern parts of those catchments where floodwaters have already receded so they should see little impact from this.

But it will be weeks and even months before the cyclone-hit Whitsundays and coastal towns recover from the structural and economic impact of Ului.

Severe storms in southwest to bring first rain in months for Perth

It never rains, but it pours! Many parts of southwest WA haven’t seen rain in months but today the much- anticipated wet weather is arriving with a bang- literally.

Severe storms are expected across much of the Southwest Land Division and southern Gascoyne with heavy rain, hail and squally winds.

Tropical moisture piling in from the north is clashing with a cold pool leading to humidity, instability and potentially volatile thunderstorms today. There is a possibility that some of this severe weather could affect Perth too.

TC Ului to hit QLD coast on Sunday

Tropical Cyclone Ului is now heading towards the QLD coast and is expected to strike somewhere between Cardwell and Mackay on Sunday morning. Areas between Cardwell and Yeppoon including the adjacent inland are on Cyclone Watch with damaging winds expected to develop in this region during Saturday.

Ului is currently located about 1000km northeast of Mackay and has steadily weakened from a category 5 to a category 3 system. The cyclone currently appears less organised on the satellite with its eye barely visible- a weakening that the cyclone itself is responsible for. Since the system has been moving very slowly, its winds have been churning up the warm ocean surface, allowing the colder water to come up. Known as "upwelling", this process has lead to Ului's weakening since cyclones require warm ocean waters to fuel them. However, Ului is expected to accelerate and strengthen one again as it approaches the QLD coast.

The heaviest rain is expected at the centre and south of where the cyclone strikes, along with destructive winds and storm surge. But it's not just the Cyclone Watch area that will be impacted by Ului. Coastal conditions as far south as the Gold Coast are also becoming increasingly dangerous with large seas, monster swell and strong winds. Beach erosion is expected at exposed beaches, especially the Sunshine and Fraser coasts.

While tropical cyclones are common in QLD, they don't often cross the coast this far south. The last time we had a category 2 cyclone or higher cross the coast south of Townsville was 18 years ago with TC Fran. It's been a relatively quiet cyclone season too. On average, 13 cyclones appear in the Australian region each season. Ului is only our 6th but a lower number of cyclones is typical in an El Nino year.

Stay tuned to channel 603 where we'll keep you covered on Ului's every turn.

Central QLD on alert for possible cyclone crossing

We’ve been talking about Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului on The Weather Channel since last Friday, and up until now the storm has been looming so far offshore in the Coral Sea that it hasn’t posed a major threat to the QLD coast- but it looks like this is about to change.

Severe TC Ului is currently located about 1240km northeast of Mackay and it’s moving slowly south at about 4km/hr. On Friday, TC Ului is expected to turn west-southwest and start tracking towards the QLD coast. There is still uncertainty as to exactly which part of the QLD coast is under threat but at this stage most models are in agreeance that the cyclone could impact the central QLD coast, between Bowen and Gladstone, over the weekend.

While large swell and strong winds are already pounding QLD shores, coastal conditions are only going to worsen in the coming days as Ului looms closer to the mainland. Dangerous seas, destructive winds and heavy rain will accompany the cyclone which has prompted evacuations from Heron Island and Lady Elliot Island.

Currently a category 4 system, TC Ului is bringing sustained winds of 185kmh, with gusts as strong as 260kmh near the cyclone centre.

Perth sweats through its hottest night since 1962!

The hot and dry spell across Perth continues to break records! The city had it's driest summer on record with a tiny 0.2mm recorded in the rain gauge on the 6th February this year, and we haven't seen a drop since making it the driest start to the year on record! Perth Airport didn't receive any rain at all over summer and the dry spell has continued into Autumn.

Summer in Perth is typically characterised by low rainfall- around 35mm on average- but consistent high pressure in the southwest and a lack of tropical moisture have resulted in the unprecedented dry weather.

That's just the dry, but what about the heat? Many sites in Perth experienced their hottest or equal hottest summer on record in terms of mean daily maximum temperature. And the records are still tumbling! Perth just sweated through its hottest night for any month since 1962 with the mercury staying above 28.1 degrees all night. Extreme heat will persist today with 39 degrees expected this afternoon followed by another hot night. But cooler weather is just around the corner. Tomorrow, onshore winds will put a cap on the maximum temperature with a much more bearable 30 degrees forecast for Saturday.

Heavy rains drench QLD's tropics

Heavy rain is continuing to pound Qld's tropical coast. In just 24 hours to 9am this morning, rain gauges around Townsville were hit by rain totals around the 150mm mark. The highest recorded total was in Rollingstone with 209mm. A severe weather warning for flash flooding is in place for the Herbert and Lower Burdekin and North Tropical Coast, with the today's heaviest rain expected between Cairns and Townsville. As the deluge tracks further north over the weekend, places between Cooktown to Cairns will be the hotspots of heavy rain over Saturday and Sunday. Falls over the 100mm mark are possible each day.

But for the southeast, it's a weekend of sunny days and balmy nights which will almost guarantee packed streets across Adelaide for the Fringe festival. The warm weather is being fuelled by dry northerly winds, so fire weather is expected to lift to dangerous levels across parts of Victoria.

Rain gauges overflow as weekend dowpour soaks the east

The biggest rain in years soaked parts of NSW, the ACT and Victoria over the weekend transforming landscapes across city and country. First it was Melbourne, and then Canberra and Sydney as flash flooding turned roads into rivers. Canberra picked up almost 100mm over the weekend- its heaviest rain in 8 years. Sydneysiders were also drenched with this February the wettest month in 2 1/2 years so far. If you've driven from Sydney to Canberra before, you wouldn't recognise the notoriously dry Lake George which is glistening thanks to puddles of water. Dam levels across all three cities are also on the rise.

The weekend downpour also turned the outback town of Broken Hill into a red sea after 40-50mm of rain pounded across the desert. Other towns that got drenched include Yass which had it's wettest weekend in 21 years with 117mm, while Wilcannia had it's heaviest two-day rain in 10 years 96mm.

The rain-bearing low has now moved into the Tasman and is pounding southeast NSW and eastern Victoria with heavy rain and damaging surf. Waves over 5m are expected on the NSW south coast which may lead to beach erosion, and a severe weather warning for flash flooding has been issued. While conditions are expected to ease today, QLD is still in the thick of it with further rain this week.

Widespread falls of 50mm or more are possible over the next 4 days across all districts in QLD except for the far southwest. Rain will also start to pick up over the north tropical coast with towns including Cairns set to get heavy rain towards the end of this week.

Follow up rain heading for the Murray!

We saw the best rain in years reach parts of the Murray Basin last week and there is more on the way. Onshore winds from the Tasman Sea are continuing to pump masses of moisture over eastern Australia and it's even reaching as far as Victoria and South Australia. This explains why it has been so humid and sticky across both states, including Adelaide and Melbourne.

Because there is so much moist air hanging around, it doesn't take a big weather system to bring decent rain. From Thursday this week, a weak trough will cross the southeast and tap into the moisture source, triggering widespread rain over the Murray Basin right up until the weekend. By Sunday, widespread falls of 10mm+ and up to 50mm are possible.

Record rain pounds the east coast

It was a weekend of torrential rain for much of the east coast, especially southeast QLD, northeast NSW and the Sydney metropolitan area.

The heaviest February rain in over 100 years hammered southeast QLD with over 300mm across the Gold Coast hinterland in just a 24 hour period. Mt Tamborine saw 372mm and Clagiraba Road recorded a huge 415mm in the rain gauge! The Brisbane City rain gauge recorded 100mm while Logan picked up 128mm, its heaviest day of rain in 5 years.

Across the border torrential rain also hammered holiday towns in northeast NSW with Byron Bay getting 219mm.

Further south, weekend plans across Sydney were literally washed out with the heaviest falls on Friday affecting the western suburbs. Penrith had its heaviest rain in 8 years with 92mm. The worst- hit areas on Saturday were the northern suburbs with a whopping 209mm in Berowra, its heaviest rain in 19 years. Other areas that experienced flooding were Frenchs Forest with 195mm and Turrumurra with 198mm. The city itself received its heaviest rain in 2 years with 77mm on Saturday.

Showers are still affecting the east coast today but fortunately conditions are easing.

Perth breaks dry spell...but only in theory

After 78 days of no rain, Perth's dry spell was finally broken on Sunday when the city recorded 0.2mm in the rain gauge- just enough to officially register as a day of rain. While the dry spell is "officially" broken, this tiny amount of rain is actually negligible in terms of what it would have done for gardens and rain tanks, and the dry weather is continuing with warm and sunny conditions for at least another week.

This period is now the city's second longest dry spell with the record still standing at 83 days from 15 December 1974 to 7th March 1975.

Could Perth break its longest dry spell on record?

Perth is experiencing is 78th day in a row of no rain which is the second longest dry spell on record for the city. The record of 83 days could be broken if Perth's rain gauage doesn't register any rain from a passing cold front this weekend. The system will be cooling the southwest over Saturday and Sunday but whether the city picks up any rain remains to be seen with most models providing a 50/50 chance.

If Perth misses out on showers this weekend, it is very likely to break the longest dry spell on record set in 1974/75, since clear skies are forecast early next week.

Murray Basin soaked by best rain in years!

The best rain in up to 10 years is soaking parts of the Murray Basin. The big wet comes courtesy of moisture from the remnants of ex TC Olga and a lingering trough. In the last 24 hours to 9am this morning, Albury picked up a massive 52mm- its best rain in 3 years, while Shepparton logged 48mm in the rain gauge. Other significant 24 hour rainfall totals include:

- Yarrawonga: 40mm, best rain in 5 years
- Rutherglen: 53mm, best rain in 5 years
- Hay: 54mm, best rain in 7 years

It has also been bucketing down on the NSW south coast this morning with severe thunderstorms producing flash flooding. Bega was soaked by 108mm to 9am this morning, its heaviest rain in 3 years.

Sydneysiders didn’t miss out either with the northern end of the Warragamba catchment picking up almost 100mm in a 24 hour period.

And the big wet is not over yet. While rain is easing in Victoria, widespread falls of 25-50mm are expected across the eastern half of NSW including Sydney.

While the rain comes as good news for many farmers and communities, it’s important to remember that the Murray Basin has seen below average rain for the last 10 years and much more rain is needed to cancel the rainfall deficits over the last decade.

Olga's outback deluge spreads south

Olga's cyclone status may be gone, but she's certainly not forgotten. For the 11th day now, ex-TC Olga is continuing to bring heavy rain to the driest part of the whole country: outback towns across southwest QLD, northeast SA and northwest NSW.

In QLD, Thargomindah has picked up over 70mm in just 3 days and major flooding is now affecting Isisford, south of Longreach. With rivers rising across the southwest, major flooding is likely to affect Quilpie too. The desert deluge has also been spilling into neighbouring states. The upper north western part of NSW is on flood watch following over 70mm of rain in Tibooburra.

Meanwhile, South Australia's Moomba has picked up more than 90mm in the past 3 days- that’s more rain that the town picked up in all of 2009! A severe weather warning for flash flooding remains in place for the Northeast Pastoral district, potentially affecting stations along the Strzelecki Track and Arkaroola.

Olga’s outback rains are gradually spreading further south with moisture from Olga clipping a cold front crossing the southeast tomorrow. Widespread falls of 15-25mm are possible near the SA/VIC border and most of Victoria, NSW and Tasmania between Thursday and Friday. The Murray Basin is expected to receive its best rain in 3 months.

Sydneysiders are also getting a taste of the big wet with over 20mm for the coast and catchment overnight, and more on the way this week.

Olga the rain-maker

Ex TC Olga could be responsible for a major rain event across QLD and NSW in the coming week.

The tropical low is currently skirting the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and is expected to move offshore during today where it will most likely re-intensify into a tropical cyclone. A Cyclone Warning is current for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield to Burketown.

As we head towards the weekend, most models are predicting that Olga will move back over land and head through inland QLD where it will dump a mass of rain over western, northern and central inland. Olga is then expected to move further south bring her rain to southern QLD and the NSW border by Monday. From next week, inland parts of NSW could also benefit from widespread falls after a prolonged hot spell.

Ex cyclones dump heavy rain over QLD's tropics

Neville and Olga may have got cold feet as they skirted the QLD coast, but the ex-tropical cyclones continue to impact the tropics with heavy rain and flash flooding from Cooktown to St Lawrence.

Over the weekend, Olga, then a tropical cyclone, moved rapidly towards the QLD coast and as she approached ex TC Neville she overpowered the system and forced it to move south. This sort of movement is known as “fujiwhara” and describes the orbiting of two low pressure systems around one another when they’re in the same region. Olga didn’t actually cross the QLD coast yesterday as widely reported. Rather, Olga brushed the coast and was downgraded to a tropical low yesterday. Ex TC Olga crossed the coast early this morning and is currently sitting over the Atherton Tablelands. She is expected to move westwards and may re-develop into a tropical cyclone once again if she crosses the warm waters in the Gulf of Carpentaria. Following her stint in the Gulf, Olga is then predicted to return to the inland with major flooding possible for outback QLD. A Cyclone Watch is current for the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast and islands from Port McArthur to Burketown

Meanwhile, ex TC Neville is lingering around the central coast bringing heavy rain. In just 24 hours, towns inland of Mackay were saturated by up to 200mm and there's more on the way. A severe weather warning for flash flooding has been issued for people in the Herbert and Burdekin and Central Coast districts.

Sydney prepares to swelter in hottest day this summer

Extreme heat is searing through New South Wales in what is day one of a week long heatwave for many regional areas. Bourke and Cobar are among the inland areas that will sweat through 7 days in a row above 40 degrees!

Sydneysiders are getting a taste of this heat today in the western suburbs but tomorrow it will sizzle all the way to the city and coast too. Normally city and coastal areas get away with hot days since the coastal seabreeze prevents the mercury from getting too high. But with no seabreeze tomorrow, the coast and city is forecast to get to 39 degrees, almost as hot as the 43 degree forecast in the western suburbs. If these maximums are reached, it will be the hottest day in the city this summer, a massive 13 degrees above the average for this time of the year. With this sort of extreme heat, the Big Day Out will be a sweat-fest and music lovers are encouraged to stock up on the sunscreen, hats, shades and H20!

Thankfully, a gusty southerly change will cool things down on Saturday with a noticeable temperature drop and possible shower or storm.

But it won’t take long for the mercury to rise again with temperatures escalating into the mid thirties for Sydney’s western suburbs next week- including Australia Day.

Scorcher in the southwest, snowing in the southeast!

Today is a day of extreme contrasts between the west and east as Perth experiences another scorcher, while the southeastern ski resorts get a mid-summer dusting of snow! Following its hottest day in 2 years yesterday with 43 degrees, it was de ja vu for Perth today as the city once again sweltered in almost the same temperature. This is all thanks to hot, dry northeasterly winds. Thankfully, it will cool down on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, cold air from the south brought a wintry blast to the southeast. Temperatures in southern NSW and Victoria were as much as 10 degrees below average with snow falling across their alpine areas this morning- very unusual for this time of the year! Falls Creek got down to -2 degrees, making it its coldest January night in 18 years of records at the site.

Hottest weather since Black Saturday for the southeast

The south- eastern states are suffering through their hottest weather since Black Saturday with catastrophic fire danger across most of South Australia’s south and Victoria’s Wimmera district. Temperatures in South Australia are as much as 17 degrees above average on the coast and Adelaide is sweltering through its 4th day in a row above 40 degrees. Thankfully there is a cool change around the corner but this cool relief generally arrives as a double edged sword. Ahead of the change, the strength of the hot northerly winds are reaching their peak which is what has elevated the fire danger to catastrophic levels. The good news is that as the change comes across temperatures will be as much as 20 degrees cooler between today and tomorrow, and some much needed showers will also wet southern South Australian soils. The change is already generating severe storms across the states west with damaging and flash flooding.

For Victorians, it’s day 4 of the 5- day heatwave across the north today but in the south, temperatures are a massive 19 degrees above average. The cool change will sweep across the state tomorrow reaching Melbourne around midday. This will come as a huge relief for Melburnians considering today’s 43 degree forecast maximum.

The heat is also reaching as far south as Hobart with 36 degrees today- that’s 14 degrees above average.

Total fire bans are in place across the entire states of South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania.

More rain pounds flooded outback QLD

Outback towns in southwest QLD are experiencing major flooding thanks to consistent rain for around 2 weeks. Longreach has seen 215mm since Christmas, while flooded Thargomindah has been swamped by 155mm. And it’s not over yet. Another 50-100mm is possible west of Longreach until Friday. As usual, the big wet has brought mixed blessings to property owners. Some farmers have picked up as much as 2 years supply of water in their dams from the recent rains, while others have lost stock due to the flooding.

The rest of the nation is also experiencing the extremes of summer, but of a different kind. Another dose of severe storms are possible anywhere northeast of a line from Tibooburra in NSW to Canberra in the ACT today. These storms have the potential to cause flash flooding, damaging winds and large hail.

Further south, South Australians are bracing for a heatwave tomorrow that will drive Adelaide’s temperatures as high as 41 degrees by the weekend. The SES has issued an Extreme Heat Watch. Victoria’s heatwave will start a day later on Friday.

In the west, very hot, dry and windy weather has lead to a Catastrophic Fire Danger in the Central Wheat Belt, Great Southern, South Coastal and Southeast Coastal districts. Temperatures across the southern inland will be as much 16 degrees above average today with humidity as low as 5% and winds as strong as 50-60kmh on average ahead of a south- westerly change. A Severe Fire Danger is in place for Perth’s hills.

Monsoonal rains and low dump heavy rain over the Top End

The monsoon has kicked in over the tropics and embedded within it is a tropical low southwest of Darwin. It’s expected to develop into our second tropical cyclone of the season and if it does, guess what its name will be? Magda!

In any case, monsoonal showers, storms and rain will continue to deliver massive falls the Top End and Roper- McArthur districts. Over the next 4 days over 200mm is expected which will most likely lead to flooding.

At this stage, the low is predicted to move in a southerly direction to cross the coast near the NT/WA border as a category one tropical cyclone by tomorrow evening. Coastal areas from Kalumburu to Point Stuart and Cape Don to Cape Fourcroy are on Cyclone Watch.