Cyclone season ramps up with monster Yasi on the way

Anthony hits QLD coast
TC Anthony hit the coast around Bowen on Sunday night and has since weakened into a tropical low. Anthony delivered damaging wind gusts of 124kmh to Hamilton Island and heavy rain to areas directly south of the cyclone around Mackay with widespread falls of 100-300mm. This has lead to minor-major flooding in the Pioneer catchment. This system is moving in a south-westerly direction and continuing to bring rain to inland QLD.

The monster TC Yasi is next…
But a much larger and powerful TC Yasi is now threatening QLD as not only is it expected to be stronger than Anthony, but it is also a lot bigger meaning that its impact will be much more widespread across QLD. If you look at the satellite image above captured from http://www.weatherchannel.com.au the now ex-TC Anthony is the circular cloud near Townsville, and TC Yasi is the monster to the right spiralling near Vanuatu. It dwarfs Anthony in size and could reach category 4 status as it approaches the QLD coast. A category 4 cyclone is a Severe Tropical Cylone with “very destructive winds” that can gust at 225-279kmh over open flat land. Winds of this strength can destroy and blow away caravans and lead to significant roof loss and structural damage. TC Yasi may weaken as it approaches/crosses the coast due to friction and at this stage its expected to make landfall late Wednesday/Thursday bringing widespread heavy rain and possibly wind gusts of over 200kmh. Since the system is so large its impact will extend across a very large part of the QLD coast. Gale force winds and heavy rain could be felt for 100's of kilometres anywhere north of the sunshine coast.

Is Yasi's path unpredictable?
Contrary to popular belief, not all cyclones are "unpredictable." A TC will respond to the environment around it so if the winds in and around a cyclone are all over the place, a cyclone's path may be erratic and difficult to predict. However if there is a well established direction of environmental flow, the prediction of a cyclone's path can be made with a lot more certainty. In the case of TC Yasi, there is a well established flow of easterly winds so it can be said with some certainty that these winds will carry TC Yasi towards the QLD coast. Since a coastal crossing is still a few days out, it is difficult to predict exactly where TC Yasi will hit.

Where did the name “Yasi” come from?
Various meteorological organisations are responsible for naming TC's depending on where in the world they form, and there are various conventions for TC naming too. TC's that form in Australian waters are named by the Bureau of Meteorology using a set list that runs in alphabetical order. So with Anthony and Bianca most recently forming in our waters, you might be wondering why this TC is called Yasi as opposed to a name starting with "C". Well, since TC Yasi formed out of Australian waters it was named by the Fiji Met Service. They also follow the convention of naming TC's using a set list in alphabetical order, so after naming Ului, Vania and Wilma, Yasi was the next name on the list. When TC Yasi enters our waters it keeps its Fijian name to avoid confusion. The next TC to form in Australian waters will be Carlos.