Storms on the way for SE QLD!

Spring is almost here and we're already getting a taste of the type of weather it brings in southeast QLD- afternoon storms!!

This afternoon we'll see showers and storms developing in QLD anywhere east of the Northern Goldfields and Maranoa and Warrego districts, including Southeast QLD. The atmosphere is unstable and these storms have the potential to be severe with flash flooding and isolated falls of around 50mm, as well as large hailstones and damaging winds.

Last night, storms swept through parts of QLD bringing the heaviest falls to the Central Coast and Capricornia districts (Bingebang Weir 91mm, Mt Christian 80mm, St Lawrence 51mm, Prospect Creek 43mm), with around 10-20mm in parts of Maranoa and Warrego and Darling Downs (Toowoomba Ap 18mm, Yuleba 19mm, Dalby 12mm). This afternoon, the Southeast Coast will also come into play with Brisbane likely to be affected.

Journey to the centre of the earth!

Reporting on severe weather over the last few years has brought me very close to the extremes of nature. From the worst bushfires to the worst floods in Australia's history, I've seen and heard how intense, terrifying, and unrelenting the weather can be. The sounds can be deafening and the images, frightening.

Last weekend, I experienced the incredible force of nature again, only this time it wasn't coming from the sky, but the earth. Mt Yasur volcano on Tanna Island in Vanuatu is the most accessible active volcano on the planet and I couldn't believe how close I was able to get to the roaring earth and spitting lava. The blast of lava sounded like bombs exploding and the fireworks display of fire, lava, rocks and smoke was extraordinary.

The journey to the volcano is as rewarding as the volcano itself. As you 4WD through the lush jungle, you see villages full of the smiling happy faces of locals who appear genuinely excited and happy to see you. Children swing from trees or wave shyly from the road, amongst wild horses and the traditional huts they live in. It's hard to believe that all of this is only a 3 hour flight from Sydney.

The road to Mt Yasur is more like a dirt track with enormous potholes and takes about 2 hours each way. As you approach the volcano, vegetation and villages disappear to reveal a stark, grey moonscape plain of volcanic ash, with Mt Yasur blowing smoke and roaring in the distance.

As the 4WD descends up the volcano, steam leaks out from the volcanic earth. Just before the short walk up to the volcano rim you'll find a post box- the only one on a volcano in the world!

The best time to view Mt Yasur is in the late afternoon/evening when the colours are most pronounced. I was lucky enough to see it at Level 2 which is a lot of activity yet still safe enough to view. If the volcanic activity reaches Level 3 it is too dangerous to go up and see it.

Big week of rain for southwest WA!

It's set to be a big week of rainfall for southwest WA thanks to a number of cold fronts crossing the region. The most significant of these fronts is hitting on Tuesday morning and it's expected to deliver as much as 25-50mm for the west coast including Perth, with 5-15mm possible for the Central Wheatbelt favouring the western half. Most of this rain will occur during Tuesday morning with isolated showers during the afternoon. The bad news is that this front is likely to be accompanied by severe weather. Damaging winds are possible ahead the front on Tuesday morning with squally storms potentially generating powerful winds also. Damaging winds with gusts over 90kmh are strong enough to bring down trees and power lines.

The next front is due on Thursday with another 5-15mm expected for the west coast and lighter falls further inland. By the end of the week as much as 50-100mm could fall on the west coast with anywhere between 10-20mm for the Wheatbelt.

This comes on top of heavy rain just last Friday where Perth saw 57mm! This brings Perth's June rainfall so far to 128.2mm, just 6.5mm short of the June monthly average. Needless to say, many parts of the southwest will have recorded above average rain for June by the end of the month.

Finally, some more rain for Perth and WA south-west

After its driest year on record in 2010 and below average rainfall so far this year, much of WA’s southwest is in desperate need of rainfall. But I have some good news! Next week a couple of strong cold fronts will bring a wet change to the southwest, but this may be accompanied severe weather.

On Monday, it’s a very “winter-type” set-up with a strong cold front bringing rainfall, windy conditions (potentially damaging winds with gusts over 90kmh) and severe thunderstorms. Showers will continue on Tuesday with onshore winds before another cold front brings more rainfall on Wednesday.

Between the two systems, widespread falls of 25-50mm are possible for the Perth area with 50mm plus for towns south of Perth such as Bunbury and Busselton. Rain totals will drop rapidly heading inland with 1-20mm possible in the Wheatbelt, favouring the western side.

Ahead of this wet and windy weather, try and tie down any loose items and be prepared for a wet and slippery commute to work on Monday.

Extreme cold chills the southeast

Many cities and towns in south-eastern Australia shivered through their coldest morning so far this year. Sub-zero temperatures brought frost to places including Glenn Innes and Young with -5, Camden with -1 and Tamworth with -2! Even Richmond (NSW)and Charlesville (QLD) woke up to their first frost for the year.

Day-time temperatures are also well below average across much of southern and eastern Australia. Check out the following forecast maximum temperatures today!

- Toowoomba, QLD: 16 degrees (4 below average)
- Mt Isa, QLD: 22 degrees (6 below average)

- Orange, NSW: 6 degrees (8 below average)
- Young, NSW: 10 degrees (8 below average)

- Ballarat, VIC: 7 degrees (7 below average)
- Melbourne, VIC: 13 degrees (4 below average)

- Hobart, TAS: 11 degrees (3 below average)
- Launceston, TAS: 12 degrees (4 below average)

- Renmark, SA: 16 degrees (4 below average)
- Adelaide, SA: 16 degrees (3 below average)

And if this isn't bad enough, icy south-westerly winds will make it "feel" a few degrees colder!

Snow has also been coating the NSW and VIC slopes and ranges. Most alpine areas have had around 10cm of snow but I've also had reports of 15-20cm at Mt Buller this morning (See pic by Tony Harrington above).

The cold snap is here to stay for the rest of the week and for some places, tonight may be even colder than last night so rug up!

Sydney's Weekend Washout!

It has been raining non-stop in Sydney this weekend with massive rain totals recorded between the Hunter and South coasts over the last 2 days. So where is this deluge coming from and when will it stop?!

Well, the atmosphere is completed saturated and when it's like this all it needs is a "trigger" for a heavy downpour. In this case, the "trigger" is a small-scale low pressure trough that formed off the NSW coast. The very moist air has been feeding into this trough causing widespread torrential rain in Sydney, the Hunter, South Coast and Illawarra. With so much heavy rain falling over a short time period, flash flooding is likely.

Over the last 48 hours, the heaviest falls have generally been in coastal suburbs, closest to this trough. In 24 hours to 9am Sunday morning, we've seen widespread falls of over 100mm with as much as 166mm in Little Bay, it's heaviest March rain since 1975. Other notable falls include:

Avalon- 139mm
St Ives- 179mm
Turrumurra- 175mm
Belrose- 137mm
North Manly-130mm
Sydney Airport- 100mm

Further south, Albion Park recorded 137mm, Wollongong 129mm and Barrengarry 210mm!! The rain has been lighter further west with up to 50mm in the Warragamba catchment area. Considering how dry it has been, this is unlikely to lead to any significant rises.

So- what next? Heavy rain will continue during Sunday, easing later as the trough moves away. But heavy rain is likely to return on Monday as another low pressure trough comes in from the west. The wet weather should start to ease on Tuesday.

Cyclone season ramps up with monster Yasi on the way

Anthony hits QLD coast
TC Anthony hit the coast around Bowen on Sunday night and has since weakened into a tropical low. Anthony delivered damaging wind gusts of 124kmh to Hamilton Island and heavy rain to areas directly south of the cyclone around Mackay with widespread falls of 100-300mm. This has lead to minor-major flooding in the Pioneer catchment. This system is moving in a south-westerly direction and continuing to bring rain to inland QLD.

The monster TC Yasi is next…
But a much larger and powerful TC Yasi is now threatening QLD as not only is it expected to be stronger than Anthony, but it is also a lot bigger meaning that its impact will be much more widespread across QLD. If you look at the satellite image above captured from http://www.weatherchannel.com.au the now ex-TC Anthony is the circular cloud near Townsville, and TC Yasi is the monster to the right spiralling near Vanuatu. It dwarfs Anthony in size and could reach category 4 status as it approaches the QLD coast. A category 4 cyclone is a Severe Tropical Cylone with “very destructive winds” that can gust at 225-279kmh over open flat land. Winds of this strength can destroy and blow away caravans and lead to significant roof loss and structural damage. TC Yasi may weaken as it approaches/crosses the coast due to friction and at this stage its expected to make landfall late Wednesday/Thursday bringing widespread heavy rain and possibly wind gusts of over 200kmh. Since the system is so large its impact will extend across a very large part of the QLD coast. Gale force winds and heavy rain could be felt for 100's of kilometres anywhere north of the sunshine coast.

Is Yasi's path unpredictable?
Contrary to popular belief, not all cyclones are "unpredictable." A TC will respond to the environment around it so if the winds in and around a cyclone are all over the place, a cyclone's path may be erratic and difficult to predict. However if there is a well established direction of environmental flow, the prediction of a cyclone's path can be made with a lot more certainty. In the case of TC Yasi, there is a well established flow of easterly winds so it can be said with some certainty that these winds will carry TC Yasi towards the QLD coast. Since a coastal crossing is still a few days out, it is difficult to predict exactly where TC Yasi will hit.

Where did the name “Yasi” come from?
Various meteorological organisations are responsible for naming TC's depending on where in the world they form, and there are various conventions for TC naming too. TC's that form in Australian waters are named by the Bureau of Meteorology using a set list that runs in alphabetical order. So with Anthony and Bianca most recently forming in our waters, you might be wondering why this TC is called Yasi as opposed to a name starting with "C". Well, since TC Yasi formed out of Australian waters it was named by the Fiji Met Service. They also follow the convention of naming TC's using a set list in alphabetical order, so after naming Ului, Vania and Wilma, Yasi was the next name on the list. When TC Yasi enters our waters it keeps its Fijian name to avoid confusion. The next TC to form in Australian waters will be Carlos.